This Friday and Saturday will be pure and utter chaos for the College Football Playoff committee. For college football fans, this is their favorite time of year, anxiously awaiting the latest weekly polls and their team’s conference championship games this Friday or Saturday.
There will always be a debate between the AP Top 25 Poll and the College Football Playoff Committee’s Playoff Rankings; they are never in perfect alignment. The big question entering this week is where teams like Alabama, Texas, Oregon and Florida State will be ranked once the dust settles.
In the AP Top 25 poll and the CFB rankings alike, Georgia is No. 1, Michigan is No. 2, Washington is No. 3 and Florida State is No. 4. The committee faces a difficult decision with a team like Florida State. The Seminoles’ star quarterback Jordan Travis is out for the season with a leg injury. The team had a shaky performance against Florida last week but secured an ugly win. Even if they do win this weekend, Travis’ absence could push them out if another team performs well in their championship game.
If Alabama defeats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game this Saturday, this will leave the committee with possibly the hardest decision they will ever make. The SEC has never missed the College Football Playoff. The last four national championship games were won by SEC schools: LSU, Alabama and Georgia twice. The conference has won six of 10 titles since the playoffs made their debut in 2014. The question remains if an SEC Champion 12-1 Alabama team (assuming a win this weekend) leaps over a Big 12 Champion 12-1 Texas team, whom Alabama lost to earlier in the season. All of the different head-to-head results make a Crimson Tide victory a rough decision for the committee.
If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State remain undefeated, the assumption is that all four of those teams remain where they are, and the playoffs are set. If Florida State barely beats Louisville and has another performance like they did against Florida, their case won’t look as strong, and they could get leapfrogged.
Tate Rodemaker, Travis’s backup quarterback, has performed well in two games so far. Rodemaker got it done for the Seminoles, leading a comeback from a 12-0 deficit to a 24-15 win over Florida. They had a season-low 224 yards of offense and averaged 3.93 yards per play. Then there’s the scenario if Florida State convincingly beats Louisville and finishes the season 13-0. If they are excluded after doing all that, then it will be the first time the committee ever leaves out an undefeated Power 5 team.
The committee strongly believes in selecting the four best teams in the country. Excluding the Seminoles would bring controversy to the college football world. Another intriguing scenario would be bringing Ohio State back into the bracket. If Georgia beats Alabama, Michigan beats Iowa, Washington beats Oregon for the second time this year, Oklahoma State upsets Texas and Louisville beats Florida State, that will leave the committee with an interesting decision to make.
That would leave three undefeated teams, with the Buckeyes as the lone Power 5 team with only one loss for the season. Ohio State defeated Notre Dame and Penn State and only lost by six points to Michigan, who is unbeaten in this scenario.
A dream scenario for college football fans who want to see upsets across the board: Alabama beats Georgia, Iowa upsets Michigan, Oregon beats Washington, Louisville beats Florida State and Oklahoma State upsets Texas. This is a tough one to swallow from the committee’s perspective, but from a fan’s perspective, it would be fascinating to see how the committee would handle this.
Alabama, Oregon and Georgia would most likely be in. Then it would be a coin flip between Michigan and Washington for the fourth spot: pure and utter chaos, exactly what College Football is all about.