When UConn men’s basketball finished on top as national champions last year, the program had to get past an impressive San Diego State team to do so. Naturally, in typical March Madness fashion, there were certainly some moments where the Aztecs were competitive, but overall, Connecticut’s strength went unmatched.
Now, this year’s Sweet 16 is almost here. While the stakes may not be the same in the upcoming rematch between the Huskies and Aztecs, it is nonetheless the most important game of each program’s season up to this point. UConn is of course looking to continue their path toward a sixth ring, while San Diego State is vying for their first championship. If the Huskies repeat what they were able to do in the 2011 Sweet 16 and last year’s championship against this same institution, they’ll be on their way to the Elite Eight.
What makes this Aztecs team so dangerous this time around? Similarly to my preview last week of the Stetson Hatters, I’ll be examining the Aztecs and what exactly this UConn squad needs to do to continue moving forward on their championship path.
The personnel
When you compare this season’s Aztecs lineup to last season, you’ll immediately notice some key returners. Although offensive weapon Keshad Johnson, who led San Diego State in scoring during the national championship, transferred, other players have notably stepped up to fill that hole.
If you’re to scout anyone from this roster, the first guy that needs to be circled is 6-foot-9 big man Jaedon LeDee. What’s even more impressive than the Houston native’s accomplishments this season was where he was before the season started. This is a player who averaged just 7.9 points last season and scored just seven points during the 2023 National Championship. Now, he’s an All-Mountain West First Team member who averaged 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds on 56.4% from the field in about 32 minutes of action per game during the regular season.
What should scare any opponent is how LeDee can score the basketball. A quick look back at the Aztecs’ game against UAB in the Round of 64 showcases that knack for scoring. He had 18 points in the first half alone and was hitting from both mid-range and in the paint. This season, LeDee has even shown his ability to hit from beyond the arc and, albeit on rare occasions, also demonstrated that skill in the first-round win.
Overall, this is a massive defensive challenge for any opponent, even for a team like the Huskies who have significantly improved since the start of the season. To top it all off, San Diego State’s man in the middle has been doing an incredible job at getting to the free throw stripe, as evidenced by top-five rates in fouls drawn per 40 minutes and a 68.6% free throw rate, which is good for 26th in the country. If they’re able to lock down LeDee, the Huskies will have the opportunity to gain some much-needed momentum.
But of course, San Diego State didn’t just get carried here on the back of their star big man, and they’ve got plenty of other players to look out for.
The heart of this defense lies with Lamont Butler, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year. He’s certainly a capable scorer and the Aztecs guard has had some key moments for his squad, such as his buzzer beater that sent San Diego State to the national championship last season.
However, the strength of his game is on the defensive end, and his 1.5 steals per contest leads the Aztecs. Butler has had multiple four-steal games this season, including the matchup against UAB in the first round that was massive in giving this lineup some momentum. He’s a key reason why the Aztecs have the ninth-most efficient defense in the entire country according to KenPom and is a player that Dan Hurley and company absolutely need to be locked in on.
There are also plenty of other players to look out for. One guy who may fly under the radar is Darrion Trammell, who dropped 18 points against Yale to advance to this matchup. He may have dropped just four points in the first round, but he’s shown up in some big moments for this squad throughout the season, such as when he dropped 17 points during the team’s contest versus Gonzaga.
Going deeper into the stats
Legendary football coach Bear Bryant once said, “Defense wins championships.” In the sport of basketball, that statement is certainly true, and this San Diego State team thrives on it.
Along with having the ninth-most efficient defense in college basketball and a top 20 team ranking in KenPom like last season, the team sat at No. 20 in NET rankings, No. 25 in Haslametrics, No. 18 according to EvanMiya and No. 27 in BPI.
They’re ranked 53rd in offensive efficiency, which may not blow many away, but as I’ve stated prior, they’ve got the weapons to really cause some trouble.
Weaknesses
While players like LeDee are great on the offensive end, there are certainly some overall weaknesses on that side of the ball from this unit. This is not a great 3-point shooting team, as evidenced by a 31.3% mark in that department, and they’ll look to get most of their looks from the paint or in the mid-range area. That’s an area that Connecticut will look to take advantage of throughout this game and take away opportunities closer to the basket.
Final Thoughts
Overall, this is the perfect defensive challenge for Connecticut. Going up against one of the top units in the country in that department, a win would be monumental for UConn’s confidence.
With the potential to go up against Iowa State in the Elite Eight, who has the most efficient defense in the country, the Huskies need to show why this team is feared on both ends of the court. If they don’t, you can expect that this Aztecs team will certainly be looking to capitalize.