Droppin’ Dimes: Predicting the top six seeds in the NBA Western Conference

Last year, the Western Conference came down to the wire with first place decided by a head-to-head tie breaker. Each position after that was decided by only one or two games. Spots in the play in tournament were well-earned. With such a tight race, it’s going to be impossible to tell where teams will stack up in the Western Conference this year, but I’m going to try anyway. 

No. 6 Sacramento Kings 

The Kings earned the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference last year. With their season ending on a loss to the Pelicans in the second play-in game, it’s time for a change in Sacramento. Enter DeMar DeRozan. The six-time all-star averaged 24 points per game last year for the San Antonio Spurs and will add the exact level of dynamism that the Kings need. DeRozan will help to draw defensive attention away from the Kings’ outside shooters to create opportunities for them. However, the biggest contribution he brings to the table is his veteran playoff experience. Sacramento has not won a playoff series since 2004. DeMar DeRozan has had a lot of playoff success in his career, including a trip to the conference finals in 2016 where his Toronto Raptors lost in six games by the LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers. This change for Sacramento can help push them over the hump into the playoffs this season.  

No. 5 Phoenix Suns  

In 2023, the Suns made trades to acquire 13-time all-star Kevin Durant and three-time all-star Bradley Beal to join Devin Booker. In the 2023-24 season, their big three only played 41 games together. Phoenix finished sixth in the Western Conference before being swept by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs. Phoenix is looking to build off of their season last year. They have an opportunity to get together and figure out how their three stars can fit into the same offense. The change of head coach to Mike Budenholzer will also help out the Suns. In five seasons as head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, Budenholzer had a regular season record of 271-120 (.693), which was the best record in the league in that time frame. The biggest concern for the Suns is injuries. Beal has not played 60 games since the 2020-21 season, while Durant reached this mark for the first time since his 2018-19 campaign. If the Suns stars can stay on the court, fans can expect a big year in Phoenix.  

No. 4 Dallas Mavericks  

Fresh off their NBA Finals loss, the Mavericks will be coming into this year hungry to get back to the promised land. Luka Dončić is coming off the best season of his career where he averaged a near 33-point triple double through 70 games played. Alongside Dončić is one of the most skilled players in NBA history, Kyrie Irving. Last season, when the tandem played together, the Mavericks had a record of 35-16 (.686). This winning percentage would have earned Dallas the third seed in the west, originally seeded at the five. The Mavs made a big offseason move, acquiring four-time NBA Champion Klay Thompson from the Golden State Warriors. Dončić and Irving’s isolation style of play will give Thompson plenty of breathing room beyond the arc to help add to this Mavericks offense.  

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves 

Minnesota took a huge leap last season, going from the eighth seed in 2022-23 to the third seed in 2023-24. This is primarily due to Anthony Edwards’ development. Edwards came into his own last year and became a bona fide superstar in the NBA. He averaged 25.9 points per game and 5.1 assists per game on 46.1/35.7/83.6 shooting splits. In the Timberwolves’ front court, you will find all-star centers Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns holding down the paint. Gobert earned his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award last year while Towns averaged 21.8 points per game. Town’s ability to shoot the three allows Minnesota to stretch the floor; last year, he shot 41.6% from three. The Timberwolves fell short of the Finals last year, losing in the conference finals to the Mavericks 4-1 and will be looking to get back to that stage.  

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder  

Oklahoma City came out of nowhere last season, winning the tightly competitive Western Conference after being a play-in team the year before. Their 26-year-old superstar point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished as the runner-up in the Most Valuable Player vote. He averaged 30.1 and 6.2 assists per game on 53.5/35.3/87.4 shooting splits. The Thunder have put a great supporting cast around him. Jalen Williams shares the offensive workload, averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting 42.7% from three. Chet Holmgren stands at 7-foot-1 and makes 2.3 blocks per game. The Thunder added to their young roster in free agency. First, the addition of multiple time all-defensive team selection Alex Caruso. Caruso is also the reigning recipient of the NBA’s Hustle Award and is well-known for being a great locker room presence. They also added center Isaiah Hartenstein as a defensive anchor. The Thunder are due for another big season as their young core continues to develop.  

No. 1 Denver Nuggets  

The Nuggets have been atop the Western Conference for years. They have not missed the playoffs since 2017-18 and only finished outside the top three once in that span. Last year, they were a shocking early exit in the playoffs, losing to the Timberwolves in seven games. The Nuggets are led by the best player in the NBA, Nikola Jokić. In the last three years, “the Joker” has accrued two league MVP’s, a finals MVP and three All-NBA first-team nominations. In the offseason, the Nuggets added former league MVP Russell Westbrook, a veteran whose locker-room leadership and explosive play style will help keep the Nuggets at the top of the food chain. The Nuggets did not lose any major pieces this offseason and are in a good position to make another run at an NBA Championship.