Every year on the second day of the second month, Feb. 2, groundhogs come out of their burrows and offer a fun prognostication: if they see their shadow, the legend says there will be six more weeks of winter – if not, we should expect an early spring. We’ve dubbed this celebration Groundhog Day and this year, the groundhogs of record do not agree in their weather predictions.
The most famous groundhog seer is Punxsutawney Phil, aptly named for his small community about an hour north of Altoona in Western Pennsylvania. The tradition began there in the 1800s by German immigrants in Amish and Pennsylvania Deutsch communities celebrating the holiday of Candlemas – and Phil has been on record since 1887. This year, he saw his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter.
Festivities occurred at “Gobbler’s Knob,” the hill where Phil is said to live – with a crowd of thousands, many of whom travel exclusively to hear the reveal, alongside groundhog-themed musical performances and live radio and television broadcasts heard nationwide.
The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil’s keepers, uphold him as the only true prognosticator – and that the Phil we see today is in fact the same rodent who started the trend. The club’s top-hatted “inner circle” maintain that Phil is a national treasure and unique in his abilities, but that hasn’t stopped other groundhogs from trying their hand at public spectacle.
According to reporting from the Connecticut Mirror from 2024, Chuckles has had a 60% accuracy rate based off of temperature data since the Lutz started publishing the data on the web in 2008. The tradition of Chuckles has been constant since 1968, but a new groundhog is ordained and trained every generation.
In Connecticut, Chuckles the Woodchuck resides at the LutzChildren’s Museum in Manchester. Designated as the state’s official groundhog, Chuckles purportedly whispers his prediction in the ear of Manchester city mayor Jay Moran, the only Connecticut public official who speaks groundhog-ese. Chuckles announced we’d receive an early spring on Sunday – and the historical data suggests that his prediction may be more accurate than Phil’s.
Notably, Chuckles also predicted an early spring last year, right before Winter Storm Birch swept Connecticut. Guilford police labeled him “Chuck the Liar” and even issued a warrant for his arrest, which Chuckles complied with, but his community service allowed him to be released.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a similar analysis of groundhog predictions nationwide, gave Punxsutawney Phil a score of only 35%. Topping NOAA’s list is Staten Island Chuck, a groundhog who resides at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City – receiving an 85% accuracy rating.
Staten Island Chuck also predicted an early spring this year, a prognostication Phil has only given 21 times over his 137-year career according to NOAA. Groundhog-Day.com, a webpage dedicated to tracking and promoting the holiday, says it received 38 reports of an early spring prediction and 31 for a continued winter this year, from groundhogs across the country.
The holiday also rose to prominence through the 1993 film “Groundhog Day“, set in a fictionalized Punxsutawney, PA and starring Bill Murray as a narcissistic weatherman stuck in a time-loop, forced to re-live Feb. 2 day-after-day. The film’s release has been a boon to the real-life celebrations in Punxsutawney according to Tom Dunkel, President of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, in an article from local TV station WTAJ.
However you celebrate the holiday, Groundhog Day is a fun reminder that spring is right around the corner, but NOAA suggests that staying updated with an accurate forecast may offer a more relevant weather outlook than the groundhogs’ predictions.
To stay updated with Connecticut weather, visit the National Weather Service’s webpages for their New York and Boston stations, in addition to the forecasts provided by local radio and television stations. For more information about Groundhog Day history and celebrations, visit groundhog-day.com.