Each March, millions of hopeful bracket pool champions scour the internet for trendy mid-major upset picks and possible second-weekend darlings that will vault their entry to immortality (first place, of course).
What goes into finding these mid-major Cinderellas? Where should you look? What should you be looking at? Just keep reading, I promise…
I’ll tell you, okay — just follow along.
I will first lay out a handful of criteria that can help you verify a mid-major team’s “upset watch factor” before listing four mid-majors I believe are bound to make runs next month.
Where to look (or begin):
First, comb through all 50-something college basketball analytics sites and find which ones you like the most.
Just kidding, that’s way too much work.
I lean on a handful of sites to help me pick games each day. I’ll embed them down below (I apologize for people reading in print):
ESPN Standings: ESPN’s centralized standings website provides the most widely available and surface-level analytics to help you find which teams win the most (to check that, look at a team’s record). From this website, pick some of the schools that you’ve never heard of but have good records. Write them down.
KenPom: March Madness’s crown jewel. Most of KenPom’s deep-seeded analytics are available for free, including everything on the homepage of the website. Remember that list of teams you wrote down? Find them on this website and see where they rank. I’ll explain more below.
Torvik: Bart Torvik’s database is — in some ways — similar to KenPom’s, but Torvik’s T-Rank and tempo-free stats are, well, free. You won’t have to pay for anything on this site, and there are more search filters available.
NET and QUAD Rankings: Unless you really want to get technical, I’ll spare you the trouble of defining these multi-syllabic, computer-driven statistics. This site’s central purpose is to list the strengths of the resumés and records of all 364 Division I teams.
What to look for:
Your main goal is to find a mid-major team that is really, really good at something very, very unique. Remember last season’s Oakland team who brought down Kentucky in round one? The Golden Grizzlies ranked inside the top 100 in 3P% (86), TO% (96) and FT% (61) nationally.
Greg Kampe’s squad also played at one of the nation’s slowest tempos — a notorious high-seed killer come March. You can check a team’s tempo rating on KenPom.
What about last season’s Yale squad, which conquered Auburn? The Bulldogs played at the nation’s 49th slowest tempo, barely ever turned the ball over (14.3%) and stormed the boards defensively (13th nationally in DR%).
See a pattern? The same can be said about teams playing at a fast tempo (2024 James Madison, 2024 Utah State). Find the extremes (whatever they are) and use them to your advantage.
But be careful. Match your mid-major team’s profile to their opponents, and you may find that their “extreme” plays right into a high-major’s strength.
For instance, look at McNeese State last season. The Cowboys rolled through the Southland and won 30 games, earning a No. 12 seed and a first-round match-up with No. 5 Gonzaga.
McNeese’s historically good offense (predicated on slowing the tempo and using sets to find open shots) was thwarted by the Zags’ size advantage down low, which stunned the Cowboys when they attempted to work the ball around the floor.
I would also consider two key (and free to use) statistics: non-conference strength of schedule rating (NCSOS) and luck rating (LUCK) on KenPom. Sorting last season’s tournament pool by NCSOS, teams such as Oakland (+9.87), Dayton (+6.97) and Yale (+5.01) all float towards the top — all of which won a game in March.
My Cinderellas:
Enough talk; I’m sure you all are here for my picks, right? I’ll take that as a yes.
Here are four mid-major teams that match the profile I described above (warning: you will see repeat offenders).
UC Irvine Anteaters – Big West (20-4, 10-2)
The Anteaters have been crowned the kings of mid-major basketball this season, erupting for 20 wins in 23 games (best start since 2001) while leaning on one of the country’s best defenses.
Irvine’s defense ranks eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency, 10th in EFG% allowed, 3rd in FTA/FGA rate and fifth in 2P% allowed.
Being a tough out defensively is cool — but what about the offense? The Anteaters are solid from three (35.7%) and get to the line enough — and hit their shots (81.2%) — that their offensive miscues can be covered up.
Yale Bulldogs – Ivy (14-6, 7-0)
Yale just dismantled the nation’s most efficient shooting team (Cornell) by 15 points while putting up 103 points on a 62.5% mark from the field. Guard John Poulakidas scored 32 points on 12/18 shooting and recorded six triples.
The Bulldogs are one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams (39.4%, 6th) and play at a high-flying tempo (67.7) — oh boy. Buy your Yale stock now.
Samford Bulldogs – Southern (19-6, 9-3)
Despite high roster turnover this past off season, Samford has remained the class of the SoCon by reaching 19 wins for the fourth consecutive season. The Bulldogs rely on the three-ball (making them a risky play in March — but one that could pay off big), attempting nearly 30 three-pointers a game and sinking nearly 40% of them (98th percentile nationally).
Samford has yet to claim a major victory but stuck around with No. 9 Michigan State in East Lansing in November.
McNeese State Cowboys – Southland (18-6, 12-1)
Will Wade’s Cowboys have continued to reign over the Southland in 2025, starting 12-1 in conference play and notching a signature win over AAC-hopeful North Texas.
McNeese thrives in KenPom’s four-factors (EFG%, TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA), ranking 36th in offensive rebound percentage nationally (35.1). The Cowboys also create turnovers at a high rate, ranking seventh in steal percentage (13.8).