Weather analysts are divided over the polar vortex’s influence on weather and what that means for the rest of this year’s winter.
The polar vortex is an area of low pressure and cold air that encircles both the Earth’s polar regions, according to the National Weather Service. The Arctic polar vortex and its proximity to North America are gaining media attention for causing recent frigid temperatures in the United States. However, the scientific consensus is less certain than the media may lead one to believe.
Strong westerly winds banded together in the stratosphere of the North Pole are what make up the Arctic polar vortex, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The winds are called a vortex because they trap cold air by surrounding the North Pole with winds blowing in a circular motion. The way the vortex captures the cold is similar to a person cleaning a swimming pool by creating a whirlpool to cluster dirt in the center. If a vortex is strong, then cold weather is better contained, just like faster whirlpools collect more dirt.
Outlets like The Washington Post and The Boston Globe have both reported that recent cold weather dumping snow and ice all over the country could be partially linked to a weaker polar vortex stretching where cold air is contained. The Post clarifies the connection by citing previous records being broken in South Dakota this month for coldest high temperatures.
A meteorologist working with The Washington Post, Ben Noll, attributed only the irregularity in South Dakota’s weather to the vortex.
“This spot has been colder, relative to average, than any other place on the planet, due in large part to its proximity to this year’s polar vortex,” Noll said, specifying how the displacement of the vortex influenced South Dakota’s weather pattern. This differs from other coverage of polar vortexes which generalize some large cold spells as solely caused by a split in the vortex.
The New York Times published an article asserting the polar vortex’s responsibility.
“What’s responsible for the sudden wind chill?” Austyn Gaffney, author of the article, proposed to the audience; a question she answered by saying the reason is “the polar vortex”.
Why is it a problem to assume the polar vortex is responsible for the United States being an outlier of chilly weather in a warming world?
One explanation comes from atmospheric scientists Amy Butler and Laura Ciasto in NOAA’s Polar Vortex Blog. The experts point to discrepancies over methods of scientific measurement as an underlying issue with the assumptions being made in media coverage.
“Scientists have not agreed on a common method for measuring this “extension,” which makes it hard to say on the fly whether the vortex really was more stretched than normal this winter,” the blog said.
Butler and Ciasto’s blog shows how the speed at which news operates sometimes contradicts the speed of scientific study. Misconceptions about polar vortexes appear when they are mischaracterized as winter storms despite them being natural parts of Earth’s circulation, according to research meteorologist Brian McNoldy in an interview with News@TheU.
Butler and Ciasto in their blog assert that there is a lack of understanding about the research used in reports of the vortex.
“The idea of the polar vortex influencing weather patterns through stretching is relatively new, and the mechanics by which it might occur are less understood,” the blog said.
Amidst the confusion about the accuracy of reports on the Arctic polar vortex is another prediction. Seasonal forecast director Judah Cohen saw another stretch of the vortex in computer forecast models that could bring more cold weather around March 5, according to AP News. However, current AccuWeather forecasts for Connecticut contradict this prediction and show warmer temperatures persisting through next week.