On this day in 2023, the Baltimore Orioles held a record of 97-59 following a win over the Cleveland Guardians. Just four days later, they would clinch their first American League East title since 2014 and would end up having the best record in the entire AL East. Even though the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers would sweep them in the ALDS, this year looked like a sign of success for years to come.
Now, just two years later, the Orioles will finish last in the AL East and are still looking for their first playoff win since 2014. That once glimmering future now looks unsteady.
The 2025 Orioles have been a trainwreck on both sides of the ball, with a poor rotation and an underwhelming offense.
After a stellar season for the O’s in 2024, ace Corbin Burnes left the team in free agency on a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. So, Baltimore was back where they were before Burnes: in need of pitchers badly.
Orioles’ general manager Mike Elias would sign two starters: 40-year-old Charlie Morton on a one-year deal, and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano out of the NPB, Japan’s top baseball league. Those two would join Cade Povich, Dean Kremer and Zach Eflin in the rotation to open the year.
Fast forward to the present and Baltimore’s 5.01 pre-deadline ERA from starters ranked only above the Athletics in 2025. Povich’s 5.23 ERA (as of 9/22) ranks 106 out of 120 pitchers with 90+ innings pitched as a starter this season. Morton’s ERA of 5.72 with Baltimore would rank 112 if it was adjusted to meet the 90 IP threshold with the team. Sugano’s 1.77 HR/9 is the seventh worst of those 120 pitchers.
The only bright spot out of Baltimore’s rotation has been Trevor Rogers, who’s been one of the best starters in baseball since his return in late May. But other than Rogers (and Kremer, who’s been serviceable), the O’s rotation has been abysmal, proving how badly improvements were needed this past offseason.
Baltimore’s pitching wasn’t their only problem though. Their offense had faltered as well, as their .751 team OPS in 2024 had dropped to a .701 in 2025, causing their OPS ranking to go from four in MLB in 2024 to 21 in 2025.
Gunnar Henderson, following a fourth place MVP finish in a strong class, had high expectations. But a drop of .100 in both OPS and SLG% compared to 2024 has rounded up an underwhelming season for the young star.
Tyler O’Neill, brought in to replace Anthony Santander, who left in free agency, has been injured but a sub-.700 when healthy. Jordan Westburg was good but has been injured. Ryan Mountcastle’s OBP has gone down yearly since 2023. And Colton Cowser has had a severe sophomore slump, with his .198 batting average being the fourth worse of all hitters with 300+ plate appearances this year.
Despite all of that, Baltimore’s catching has been their biggest offensive problem, with seven different catchers this season due to injury.
The Orioles were hoping Adley Rutschman’s poor second half of 2024 wouldn’t carry over into 2025, but unfortunately for them it has. The fourth-year catcher has an OPS of .644 since the second half of 2024 began, and his defensive metrics have gone downhill as well. With the Orioles signing young catcher Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67 million contract, there’s a good chance Elias will at least listen to offers on Rutschman. And for a former first overall pick who’s shown offensive upside at such a premier position, there’s bound to be interest.
Baltimore’s strength in recent years has been their strong prospect pool, specifically in position players. But due to trades made in last year’s playoff push, coupled with the graduation of multiple prospects, Baltimore’s pool has thinned out greatly. And with Basallo and Dylan Beavers set to graduate soon, Baltimore may not have a top 100 prospect in their system.
Baltimore’s rotation should be a bit better next season. Kyle Bradish looks good since returning from Tommy John surgery, Rogers will open as the team’s ace and Grayson Rodriguez should be healthy for 2026. If health holds up, Baltimore’s rotation should be fine as is.
The real question heading into the offseason is the offense. Beavers has been great since his callup. If former first overall pick Jackson Holliday can blossom, Henderson can return to MVP level and Cowser can find his game again, this team should flourish offensively.
Without parts to trade, and without anything specific the team imminently needs, it’s hard to say the Orioles need to do much this offseason. They’ve put themselves in a position where one wrong move could bring everything crashing down. There’s not a team in the league that’ll be more in limbo than Baltimore this offseason, and more than likely the answer will be to run the current roster as is.