Trent Grisham had a breakout year in 2025, going from an opening day fourth outfielder to the New York Yankees starting center fielder and leadoff hitter in the postseason. Originally coming over from the San Diego Padres as a salary dump in the Juan Soto trade during the 2023-24 offseason, the left-handed hitter’s breakout season leaves him in line for a big contract this upcoming offseason.
Grisham finished the 2025 season with a slash line of .235/.348/.464 and a career high 34 home runs. His .811 OPS is the second-highest of any qualified center fielder. He had the seventh-highest WAR of any player who played the majority of their games in centerfield at 3.2. He ranked even better in solely offensive production, ranking behind only Julio Rodriguez and Byron Buxton with a 4.6 offensive WAR. None of the seven players ahead of him are likely to become free agents until after 2029, when Buxton will hit the open market prior to his age-36 season.
Defensively, Grisham is a former two-time Gold Glove Award winner in center in both 2020 and 2022. While his defense didn’t reach those heights in 2025, he still graded out as a roughly average fielder according to defensive WAR and outs above average.
The centerfield free agency player pool has generally been devoid of talent over the past three offseasons. Brandon Nimmo received an 8-year, $162 million contract from the incumbent New York Mets during the 2022-23 offseason, though he has played just 33 games in center of the past two seasons. Cody Bellinger resigned with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $80 million contract following a rebound first season on the North Side. He finished out that pact as the starting left fielder for the New York Yankees following a salary dump trade this past offseason. Harrison Bader hit the high mark for the 2024-25 offseason with a guaranteed $6.25 million one-year deal.
Based on Bellinger’s 2022 slash line of .307/.356/.525 from 2023 and Bader’s .236/.284/.373 triple slash with the 2024 Mets, Grisham seems likely to find a multi-year contract somewhere in between the two. What may complicate the negotiations is a potential qualifying offer from the Yankees. The qualifying offer, a one-year deal valued at an average annual value of the top 125 paid players in MLB, is projected to be worth around $22 million this upcoming offseason. Saying that Grisham receiving the offer would be improbable coming into the season would have been an understatement, but it looked like one that he may be offered and would accept by midseason. Fast forward to now, it is almost a lock that he rejects the qualifying offer that the Yankees will extend in favor of searching for a multi-year deal.
Teams who sign a player attached to a qualifying offer forfeit at least their second highest draft pick and possibly international bonus pool money as well. For teams that have passed the luxury tax threshold, they also forfeit their fifth highest selection. In the past, teams have shown reluctance to pay top dollar for non-star players if they will also forfeit draft capital. Smaller market teams occasionally shy away from any qualifying offer recipients due to the increased importance of picks and international bonus money to their organizations.
Before 2025, the last time that Grisham posted an oWAR of over 2 was 2021. He was worth just a collective 2.2 WAR in 2023 and 2024, placing him firmly outside of that star description. Still, his 2025 production will be enough for him to receive a multi-year contract.
Speculatively, potential 2026 contenders who could look to improve in center this offseason include the Mets, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays. Out of those five teams, only the Mets, Phillies and Tigers are likely to spend up to the level of contract that Grisham will command. The Yankees could also explore resigning him, but they will also likely make a run at retaining Bellinger. Jasson Domínguez’s natural position is centerfield and top prospect Spencer Jones is likely to get a regular look at one of the outfield corners at some point, though both also stand as trade candidates this offseason.
Grisham’s limited track record, lack of realistic financial suitors and the attachment of a qualifying offer may all limit the first-time free agent’s market. Still, Grisham will play all of 2026 at 29 years old and plays a position that is generally thin in MLB, meaning that he should still generate plenty of interest. Jurickson Profar’s 3-year, $42 million contract that was signed with the Atlanta Braves last offseason is a decent projection based on Profar’s similar offensive production and similarly streaky history at the plate. Still, Grisham plays better defense at a more valuable position and is slightly younger. His absolute ceiling is most likely under the 5-year, $75 million contract given to Andrew Benintendi by the Chicago White Sox prior to the 2023 season. An average annual value between $15 million and $18 million is realistic.
After missing the playoffs in 2025 despite spending over $1 billion in the prior offseason, Mets owner Steve Cohen may be willing dish out even more money to gets the Mets back on track. Jose Siri, Tyrone Taylor, Jeff McNeil nor Cedric Mullins were able to piece it together on both sides of the ball to establish themselves enough in center to have a spot locked up in 2026. Both Siri and Mullins are free agents. According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees and Mets discussed a swap of Grisham for Brett Baty at the trade deadline, so the Mets have shown interest in Grisham in the past. It would be an easy move for Grisham, who became a father for the first time earlier this season. If a new deal can’t be worked out in the Bronx, a move to Queens is a distinct possibility.
Final Prediction: New York Mets sign Grisham for to 3-year, $51 million dollar deal, $17 million AAV