Wilker’s Weekly: Patriots Week 9 overview and Week 10 outlook 

The New England Patriots continued their winning streak on Sunday after squeaking by the Atlanta Falcons 24-23. The NFC squad stayed close, but in the end, a missed extra point from former Patriot kicker Parker Romo left Atlanta just short, allowing Drake Maye to find Hunter Henry for a game clinching first down. It was a far from perfect game: no running back hit 4.0 yards per carry; Stefon Diggs managed only 38 yards; an injury to Kayshon Boutte left the receiver room without their primary deep threat. Defensively, Drake London torched the secondary, and the defense was unable to come up with a turnover. Still, the 3-5 Falcons are a far more talented team on paper than they’ve shown this season. 

As well as Maye has played this year, this wasn’t his best game. The UNC product finished the game 19/29 for 259 yards and two touchdowns but also threw an interception and had a key fumble that led to an Atlanta touchdown before halftime. His eight carries tacked on an additional 20 ground yards to his total. It wasn’t his best game, but he still managed a 65% completion percentage and extended an impressive streak: eight straight games with 200+ passing yards and a 100+ rating. If he can continue that feat next week, it will be the longest streak by a player aged 23 or younger in NFL history. 

The running game was without Rhamondre Stevenson this week, and while neither back wowed, they passed the eye test. Terrell Jennings looked powerful, taking 10 carries for 33 yards and his first NFL touchdown. TreVeyon Henderson’s first drive performance led to a Pop Douglas touchdown, and he finished with 14 carries for 55 yards. Excluding an eight-yard loss on an outside run, his 13 carries for 63 yards bumps him up to a very strong 4.8 yards per touch. While the final numbers weren’t elite for either back, they each showed some promise. Furthermore, the use of nose tackle Khyiris Tonga as a fullback was an interesting wrinkle, as it led to a strong first down run on a third and 1 play. 

Diggs was mostly quiet, being held to only three catches, but did manage a touchdown on a redzone catch and run. Douglas was the star of the day, earning four catches for 100 yards and a touchdown while dealing with some heavy personal matters off the field; his performance was no doubt something to highlight. Additionally, it was the first 100-yard game of his career. Henry and Austin Hooper each had some key plays, with Henry having 54 yards and Hooper registering 20 yards on his single catch. Atlanta had the No. 1 pass defense coming into the game, and the Patriots knocked that average from 149 to 158 yards allowed per game. Boutte’s absence certainly hurt the team, but the performance from Douglas made up for their lack of a traditional deep threat. 

Defensively, the team struggled to contain London. He finished with three touchdowns for the first time in his career, two against Marcus Jones and one coming on a ridiculous grab while boxing out Carlton Davis. The offense’s pair of turnovers made it difficult for the defense to contain the 28^th ranked offense as well as they might have hoped, as Atlanta had more than 22 points for just the third time this season. They did, however, continue their streak of holding rushers to under 50 yards. Bijan Robinson managed just 46 yards at 3.8 per carry, continuing to show that this front seven is the best in the league in stopping the run. Christian Gonzalez went out with an injury, originally suspected to be a concussion, but it was later confirmed he was okay — a huge win for the defense. In the front seven, the team managed only one sack thanks to K’Lavon Chaisson continuing his spectacular year; he has more sacks through nine games than he’s ever had in a single season in his career. Milton Williams forced a key intentional grounding penalty on Atlanta’s last drive that eventually led to a punt and the Patriots icing the game. It wasn’t a spectacular performance given their lack of turnovers. It was the first time they went a game without a fumble or interception since Week 3, and it marked just the second time all year.  

Next week, the Patriots will face another NFC South opponent, this time a much better squad, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They had a bye this past week, giving them the opportunity to let key players get healthy, including Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin, who are both nursing injuries. The Buccaneers, who sit at 6-2, took down the Saints 23-3 in Week 8. Baker Mayfield had just 152 yards in the game, while rookie Tez Johnson led the team in receiving yards. Mike Evans is on IR, and should Godwin miss another game, they’ll be relying on rookies Emeka Egbuka and Johnson, as well as tight end Cade Otton. Their offense ranks 15^th in the league overall, 24^th in rushing and 13^th in passing. Over the last three games, they’ve scored 20.6 points per game, four points fewer than their season average. The bye week may help them reset, but should they continue to miss their top options, it will be hard for them to score 30+ against a Patriots defense that ranks sixth overall.  

Defensively, Tampa’s 13^th ranked unit features Yaya Diaby as the top sack getter, veteran Lavonte David at the center of the defense and Vita Vea the top nose tackle. Haason Reddick also comes off the edge, while Antoine Winfield, Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are the primary pieces in the secondary. The Bucs have the 22^nd ranked pass defense, but their rushing defense is seventh in the league. Given their seemingly soft pass defense this season, the Patriots’ high octane passing game shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball through the air. We’ll have to see how the rushing game fares and if Stevenson returns to the lineup, or if Henderson and Jennings remain the top two backs for the Week 10 contest. Either way, expect a heavy reliance on the pass as they’ve had for most of the year. Beating the Buccaneers won’t be easy, but I think the Patriots will continue their win streak if they can keep turnovers to a minimum. Maye will have every reason to throw the ball plenty this week, and I’d expect an impressive stat line for him in a close game. The Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs, but I’ll take them to win this one by a score of 28-24.