The first College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, and one of its biggest surprises wasn’t who made the list, but who didn’t. No Group of Five (G5) teams appeared in the top 25, signaling that there is no clear favorite among them to reach the playoffs. Unlike last year, with squads like Boise State and Army getting respect, the current outlook for the G5 is uncertain. Without a true front-runner, conference championship week may be one of the most intense ever, with several teams battling for the sole G5 playoff spot.
Currently, the projected playoff bracket slots Memphis as the G5 representative and the No. 12 seed. The Tigers are 8-1, with wins over Arkansas and South Florida. If not for a shocking loss to UAB, they would be in control of their own destiny. Instead, they sit on the bubble with a crowded field of contenders.
ESPN’s Football Power Index shows how tight the race really is, with four G5 programs carrying playoff odds of over 20%. Those teams are James Madison (28.6%), North Texas (27.1%), South Florida (25.5%) and Memphis (20.9%).
Parity in the American
With three of the four teams with the best playoff odds, and six programs tied with one conference loss, the G5 hinges on the American Athletic Conference.
Surprisingly, North Texas holds the highest odds in the league. Since their sole loss to South Florida, the Mean Green have been one of the hottest teams in the country, led by a breakout season from quarterback Drew Mestemaker. He recently set the school and conference record for passing yards in a game with 608 against Charlotte. UNT has established itself as one of the most dangerous teams in the AAC.
South Florida opened the season looking like the premier G5 candidate early in the season after wins over Boise State and Florida, but their resume continues to age poorly. A crushing defeat to Memphis marked their second loss, but metrics show they still have a clear path to the playoffs. They must win out, and hope that’s enough to get them into the American championship.
The level of parity in the American has made it nearly impossible for a frontrunner to emerge. However, the league clearly boasts the best odds to send a team to the playoffs, which would be their first since Cincinnati in 2021. That said, there is one other team that has quietly stayed in the hunt.
Over the past few weeks, the James Madison Dukes have dominated the Sun Belt Conference, building a serious playoff case. They sit at 7-1, with their only loss coming in a 14-point defeat at No. 15 Louisville. Their schedule is far more manageable than anyone in the American. If they win out, the CFP committee may face a difficult decision between the American and Sun Belt Champion.
The Chaos Scenario
Of course, in college football, things rarely go the way you would expect. Since the G5 playoff representative must be a conference champion, a few upsets could completely upend the current outlook. These are a few other dark horse teams who could sneak into contention with the right circumstances.
East Carolina (AAC, 1.3% playoff odds)
Despite dropping two non-conference games, East Carolina is still in firm contention for the AAC championship with a 3-1 conference record. A three-loss G5 team in the playoffs would be unprecedented, but not impossible if the conference continues to cannibalize itself down the stretch.
Southern Mississippi (Sun Belt, 0.3% playoff odds)
From just one win last year to a playoff dark horse would make Southern Miss a cinderella story to remember. The odds are slim, but a Sun Belt title game win over JMU might be enough to vault the Golden Eagles into contention, especially with chaos in the American.
San Diego State (Mountain West, 4.2% playoff odds)
The Aztecs are the surprise leaders in the Mountain West but would need a lot of help to crack the playoff field. However, if the other contenders falter, that could quickly open up a path with a strong finish and Mountain West title.
The bottom line: while there is a clear top tier in the group of five, a few surprises could give an unexpected team a shot.
Key Games to Watch
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (Nov. 8)
Navy’s 0.6% playoff odds would skyrocket with a top ten road win. They would immediately become the G5 favorites if they win the ACC title.
San Diego State at Hawaii (Nov. 8)
The Aztecs must keep winning to stay alive, but a trip to Honolulu could prove dangerous. The Rainbow Warriors have exceeded expectations, and SDSU can’t afford to stumble in a potential trap game.
Memphis at East Carolina (Nov. 15)
The stakes could not be higher. The winner keeps their ACC title hopes alive, while the loser is likely eliminated with a second conference loss. This game may shape the entire playoff race going into championship week.
The Group of Five playoff race is poised to be the best playoff race no one is talking about. With so many opportunities for chaos, the race to the No. 12 seed will provide some of the most engaging storylines in college football this year.