MLB free agency will officially open at 5 p.m. today. Yesterday’s story detailed the best fits for the position players, while this article discusses the pitchers of the class.
The biggest name is the Houston Astros’ southpaw Framber Valdez. Valdez will be 32 next year, and consistent metrics throughout his eight-year career have put him at the top of the market.
The Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays both lack lefties and could gun for one, with the Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets making sense as well.
The Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation was the best in terms of ERA, FIP and xFIP, and a big part of that was rotational depth, shown by Ranger Suárez as their three prior to Zack Wheeler’s injury.
Now, Suárez could be signed by a team as a low-end ace, like Max Fried last offseason.
The Phillies will do anything in their power to hang onto him, but they’ll be fighting with a slew of other teams. The Mets and Blue Jays are his top external fits, though any team with money and a pitching need will at least kick tires on him.
San Diego Padres’ Dylan Cease comes off a disappointing 4.55 ERA season following a great 2024, but a 3.46 xERA suggests luck may not have been on his side.
Cease will garner interest from most of the league, but the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and Mets would be the most logical spots.
Michael King is the other Padres starter set to hit the market, and his market should be hot as well. The Mets and Sox make sense here again, along with the San Francisco Giants.
It is unlikely the Padres will keep both, but there’s a good chance that they’ll hang on to one of the two.
Zac Gallen had a very forgettable contract year with the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting career-worst numbers across the board. His history will still earn him a quality deal, but teams may be a bit more hesitant.
Gallen could be the perfect pickup for the Baltimore Orioles, who need pitching but don’t tend to spend top-end money. The Angels and Diamondbacks would also be good fits.
In what was shocking news, both the Cubs and LHP Shota Imanaga declined their ends of a mutual option, so he’ll be available as well.
The Mets and Braves are good fits, and the Padres would be in the mix should they lose both King and Cease.
Milwaukee Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff missed a good amount of the year with a shoulder injury, but when healthy, he posted some of the best metrics in the entire league. Health will be a concern, but he’ll still have plentiful interest.
The Mets, Cubs and Red Sox could use his services the most.
Righty Merrill Kelly was moved from Arizona to the Texas Rangers at the deadline, where he saw a small dip in production.
The 37-year-old will be in line for a short-term deal, with the Padres, Diamondbacks and Orioles being good fits.
The Mets’ Edwin Diaz opted out of his deal Monday, making him the best reliver on the market.
The Mets will do anything they can to keep Diaz, but some other teams that should give them a run for their money include the Jays, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Padres’ Robert Suárez is the other notable closer in this class. Suarez will be 35 to start the season, so a shorter deal is to be expected.
The Padres will likely try to bring him back, but the Jays, Dodgers and Phillies may be external fits.
Seranthony Dominguez, coming off a World Series appearance with the Jays, will fit best as a setup man. The Diamondbacks, Phillies and Cubs would be logical picks.
The Angels’ Kenley Jansen turned 38 recently, but his year still saw him post quality numbers. Jansen tends to be a closer, making the Angels, Diamondbacks and Rangers potential options.
Ryan Helsley was traded to the Mets as a top-end arm, but a 7.20 ERA with the team encapsulates what was a disappointing deadline deal.
Helsley may get less money as a result, opening the door for the Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds to be good fits.
Devin Williams enters a similar situation to Helsley, being traded to the Yankees before the year and disappointing for the majority of the season.
Williams had better metrics than his 4.79 ERA would suggest, and he was one of the Bombers’ best down the stretch, making a reunion very possible. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Braves are the best external fits.
The Detroit Tigers’ Kyle Finnegan was quietly stellar post-deadline and should garner interest as a closer. The Tigers, Mets and Cardinals could be fits.
Of course, there are bound to be surprises in free agency, and almost every team will be in play for almost any player.
This year’s class isn’t as strong as last year’s, but with concerns of a shortened or canceled 2027 due to a lockout, there may be a lot of movement this offseason as teams really push to win now.