Before the season began, not even the most optimistic of New England Patriots fans would have thought we’d be getting ready for an AFC Championship showdown. Over the past month, the Patriots have been one of the most dominant teams in football, finishing the season with the second-best offense and the fourth best defense. Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye have completely transformed this team, but to finish this incredible run with a Lombardi, they’ll need to start humming on offense again.
The Patriots have faced two opponents during their playoff run thus far: the L.A. Chargers and the Houston Texans. They took down both in dominant defensive performances, winning 16-3 and 28-16 respectively, with a Marcus Jones pick-six adding seven against Houston. In both games, Maye struggled. Against the Chargers, the challenges were prominent across the offense, while Maye’s four fumbles were what cost the team a blowout win against the Texans. Albeit, both defenses are excellent, and the latter is one of the best units we’ve seen over the past decade. Nonetheless, Maye’s shortcomings to this point have led to the team winning in spite of him, not because of him.
In their upcoming matchup against the Broncos, that must change. New England won’t have to worry about Bo Nix in the AFCCG, as he broke his foot in their most recent matchup against the Bills. Jarrett Stidham, a fourth-round selection by New England in 2019, will instead be the signal caller for the Broncos.
Fans should be excited at the prospect of only Stidham standing in the way of a Super Bowl appearance. Aside from not having to face Nix, Stidham hasn’t proven he’s a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL, hence his backup role. He hasn’t attempted a pass since the 2023 season, when he started two games for Sean Payton’s squad. He completed 20 passes and had a touchdown in each game, finishing with a 60.6% completion rate, 496 yards, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. The Broncos went 1-1 and scored 15 PPG.
Given their backup quarterback being thrust into the starting position, relying more heavily on the run game could be a decision Payton and company make. While logical, the run game hasn’t been all that successful for Denver this year. Second-round pick RJ Harvey averaged just 3.7 YPC, while Jaleel McLaughlin hasn’t been entrusted with more than seven carries in a game all year. Third stringer Tyler Badie has -2 rushing yards during the playoffs. While it isn’t impossible for J.K. Dobbins to return Sunday, he won’t likely be 100%. He’s been on IR since a Week 10 injury against the Raiders. He is far from their most productive back, totaling nearly 800 rushing yards and 5.0 YPC in ten games.
Between a home crowd and a nothing to lose attitude from Stidham, the Broncos could be dangerous. Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims are the team’s primary receiving threats, and while none of them could truly be considered elite, they’ve netted a 14-3 record with Nix at the helm. Sutton scraped 1,000 yards, Franklin managed 700 in his sophomore season and Mims’ 93-yard performance led to a win last week. Evan Engram also caught 50 balls as the primary tight end.
Defensively, Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper combined for 22 sacks, while Pat Surtain II is the best cornerback in football. Dre Greenlaw made his first appearance against the Bills since November, recording four tackles. He plays next to Alex Singleton, who notched 135 this year. Ja’Quan McMillian is one of the league’s better slot corners, while Talanoa Hufanga and P.J. Locke shore up the back end. Riley Moss and Jahdae Barron are also contributors in the defensive backfield.
From top to bottom, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in football. While it isn’t at the level of the Texans’ unit, the Patriots could be in big trouble if Maye has four fumbles again this time out.
The Patriots should handle the Broncos: they’re undefeated on the road this season and will be playing a quarterback who, by Sunday, won’t have attempted a pass in 749 days. It’s hard not to love their odds, particularly if they can limit turnovers. I’d predict a 28-13 win in favor of New England as they prepare to make their twelfth Super Bowl appearance.