For the first time since 2014, NHL players will be permitted to compete in the Olympics in Milan, Italy. The US, Canada and other countries with NHL players have still participated in the Olympics in other years, but these teams have mostly consisted of NCAA players as well as prospects.
The All-Star game will not occur this year, and the 4 Nations tournament is expected by many to be every four years as opposed to yearly. The NHL has confirmed that NHL players will be able to return to the Olympics in 2030 as well.
Twelve teams will compete in the tournament: Canada, U.S.A., Finland, Sweden, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Latvia and hosts Italy. Russia is currently banned by the Olympic committee; they have also been disallowed from the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) in recent tournaments such as World Juniors.
The twelve teams are organized into three groups of four, with Canada in Group A and the USA in Group C. Teams will play in a round robin against teams in their group for the preliminary rounds to determine tournament seeding. This will use the 3-2-1-0 point system as opposed to the NHL’s 2-1-0.
The team with the best record in each group, as well as the highest-ranking team across the board who did not win their group, will receive the top four seeds and a first-round bye.
The remaining teams are seeded by record and play a single-elimination game to begin the elimination bracket, with five playing twelve and so on.
The tournament will be played on ice that is similar to NHL size, which is unusual for the Olympics.
For overtime scenarios, the preliminaries and first round will be like the NHL regular season, with the only change being five shootout skaters instead of three. The quarterfinals, semifinals and bronze medal games change the length of the three-on-three overtime period to be 10 minutes instead of five.
Should the gold medal game reach the extra frame, it will be a continuous five-on-five overtime until somebody scores, creating the possibility for a golden goal scenario.
The Olympic rosters will feature around 147 NHL players, though this number is dependent on how many games qualifies a player as an active NHL player.
Aside from players who are injured and Russians ineligible to play, most of the big names will be playing in Milan.
Connor Bedard, Mark Scheifele and Jason Robertson are names who shockingly did not make their countries’ rosters. Adam Fox was also a surprise, though setbacks on his injuries mean he likely would’ve come regardless.
The nations widely considered to be the best are the USA, Canada, Finland and Sweden. Switzerland and the Czech Republic are next up, with Germany and Slovakia given low chances and the remaining four considered heavy longshots.
Canada is the odds-on favorite across the board. Sidney Crosby being projected in the bottom six is enough evidence as is, and the forward core led by Connor McDavid and Nathan Mackinnon is possibly the strongest ever assembled.
Cale Makar and Devon Toews are the top pairing in Colorado and will be the top pairing for Canada, but beyond that it does get weaker. In net is Logan Thompson, a good but sometimes inconsistent goalie.
Canada’s weaknesses are stronger than most team’s strengths. If Sweden, USA or Finland wants to see a non-Canada gold medal winner, it’ll come down to them to expose that defensive side. Hockey will always be Canada’s medal to lose.
The USA has a slightly worse forward core, but an arguably better defense. Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski lead an absurd defense, with Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, the Tkachuk brothers and UConn alum Tage Thompson up front.
Reigning Hart recipient Connor Hellebuyck will be in net for the Americans. Though he is an incredible netminder, injuries this year and a very questionable playoff track record are red flags for Hellebuyck. His play likely determines how far the USA can go.
There isn’t really any gamebreakers on Sweden, but there’s very little bad on their roster either. With a deep roster, Sweden has the power to put up a fight against anybody, but the lack of star power could cause them to be overwhelmed by that of other teams.
A lackluster forward core is the main concern of Finland, but the main question comes in net. Juuse Saros was a top goalie a few years ago but has since struggled after receiving a large contract. If he plays like his old self, the sky’s the limit. But if he plays like he has been, he very well could lose the starting job.
Switzerland consists of more non-NHL players than NHLers, but their roster still has some strengths. The country is known for defense in hockey, with Nico Hischier being one of the best defensive forwards in hockey right now. The Swiss’ top six isn’t bad, and a good connection could turn some heads.
The Czech Republic’s success will fall on David Pastrnak. He has shown with the Boston Bruins his ability to drive an offense almost singlehandedly, and while he will have good players on his roster, it’s hard to deny the weakness compared to other countries.
The remainder of the countries will need exceptional coaching and performances from players to have a real shot. But in a single-elimination tournament, truly anything is possible.
The men’s hockey portion of the Olympics begins with Finland against Slovakia today at 10:40 a.m., while the USA kicks off their chase for gold at 3:10 p.m. tomorrow against Latvia.