With the MLB season set to officially start tonight as the New York Yankees face the San Francisco Giants, here are my predictions for the American League division races.
East
Blue Jays
Toronto captures a second straight division title. The 2025 AL champions upgraded their rotation by signing Dylan Cease and added Tyler Rogers to the bullpen, creating depth on the pitching staff.
Despite the loss of Bo Bichette, the Blue Jays received production from so many utility-style players last season that, even if a few take a step back, there should be plenty of hitting to sustain last year’s success. Add in all-star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and well-rounded Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto and the Jays should be just fine.
Yankees
The Yankees didn’t do much beyond re-signing players, bringing back Cody Bellinger and retaining Trent Grisham via the qualifying offer. Ben Rice should see an improvement on his stat page after suffering from being one of baseball’s unluckiest hitters last season. Still, the lineup remains largely the same.
The rotation improves with the acquisition of Ryan Weathers (despite a horrid spring, 11.08 ERA over 13 innings) and the return of Gerrit Cole, plus a full season of Cam Schlittler. However, the bullpen, on paper, appears markedly worse after both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver defected from the Bronx to Queens to pitch for the Mets.
The lineup is the same, and the pitching staff overall didn’t clearly improve.
In short, the gap between the Yankees and Blue Jays grew this offseason. The Yankees are one Aaron Judge injury away from missing the postseason.
Red Sox
It was a peculiar offseason for the Red Sox, who made plenty of additions but lost Alex Bregman after seemingly cementing his role as long term leader with the Rafael Devers trade.
Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray are fine pickups. Ranger Suárez is a fantastic two behind Garrett Crochet in the rotation. Still, that may not be enough to make up for the loss of Bregman.
Orioles
Baltimore finishes just behind Boston in a close call. Pete Alonso is the big pick up, but Taylor Ward brings another 30-plus home run bat.
The rotation still falls short, but Chris Bassitt is another good signing. Trevor Rogers maintaining his breakout and Kyle Bradish returning strong in his first full season back from injury would give them postseason potential.
Rays
The small-market Rays return to Tropicana but can’t recapture a winning record. Tampa Bay is always game for a surprise, but the lineup only got weaker.
Central
Tigers
Detroit went all out in improving their rotation, bringing back living franchise legend Justin Verlander as well as signing Framber Valdez, who pitched from A.J. Hinch before Hinch’s firing. Combine that with Cy Young, favorite Tarik Skubal, the ever-solid Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty, and you’re looking at a top five rotation in the AL.
The improved staff should allow them to avoid the division title slipping away for a second straight season.
Royals
You can never count out a team with both the league’s best shortstop, Bobby Witt Jr. (7.1 WAR led all shortstops), and four playoff-caliber starters. The additions of Matt Strahm, Nick Mears and Alex Lange should be a big bullpen booster.
A bona fide starting outfielder at the trade deadline would go a long way in overcoming the Tigers for the division.
Guardians
Cleveland’s two biggest strengths remain Manager Stephen Vogt and José Ramírez. Though the Central in both leagues generally has increased parity due to the surplus of small market status, the Guardians can’t afford to wait and make their move as they did last season.
White Sox
Chicago quietly had one of the most successful offseasons in baseball. Using the money freed by the Luis Robert Jr. trade, the Pale Hose surprisingly won the Munetaka Murakami bidding with a short-term deal and brought in set-up man Seranthony Domínguez.
With a pair of young catchers in Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero leading the way alongside slugger Colson Montgomery, the White Sox possess an exciting young lineup for the first time in a while.
Twins
Following the 2025 deadline fire sale and Pablo López’s season-ending UCL surgery, Minnesota’s outlook is bleak. The Twins have a long way to go before showing they’re serious about winning again.
West
Mariners
Seattle repeats after electing to keep the band together after a Championship Series run, essentially swapping out Jorge Polanco for super-utility man Brendan Donovan.
The Mariners have maybe the strongest rotation depth in baseball and as scary a top of the order as there is in Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor.
The M’s have the potential to win the most games in the AL.
Rangers
After trading for MacKenzie Gore, Texas now features an imposing one-two-three punches of any rotation with Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob DeGrom. The real question is health. Both Gore and Eovaldi missed time in 2025, as did star shortstop Corey Seager and outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. If healthy, Texas could push for a division title.
Athletics
The recent loss has taken the luster off a genuinely great lineup.
Young stars Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom earned extensions. Nick Kurtz enters his first full season as a top first baseman, while designated hitter Brent Rooker and catcher Shea Langeliers are widely considered top 10 hitters at their positions.
The rotation keeps the A’s from fully breaking out of a rebuild, but an argument could be made for one to pick their offense over Texas’.
Astros
Houston continues to regress after missing the playoffs for the first time in eight years last season. The addition of Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai is interesting but merely replaces Framber Valdez in the rotation rather than being a real addition.
Angels
A perennial division bottom feeder, the Halos again come in last after not doing much to improve their outlook.
Best record: Mariners
Worst record: Angels
Surprise: Athletics
Under-performer: Guardians