It’s a bittersweet moment for many college basketball fans. This time next week, the season will be over. It’s a sad reality check after a month of upsets, buzzer-beaters and broken brackets.
However, before that time comes, a national champion must be crowned. With just four teams left, let’s take a look at some reasons why each remaining program will and won’t be the ones cutting nets next Monday.
No. 1 Seed Michigan
Why they will win:
Yaxel Lendeborg. Of course, boiling down Michigan’s success to just one player, even one as good as the AP First Team All-American, grossly oversimplifies the Wolverines’ dominance. After all, Lendeborg has certainly benefitted from Elliot Cadeau placing inside the top 10 in the country in assists.
Still, sometimes winning is as simple as having the best remaining player in the tournament in your lineup. Take Anthony Davis for Kentucky in 2012 or Emeka Okafor for UConn in 2004. Both won national player of the year awards and both excelled in the tournament en route to winning both a national championship and Final Four Most Outstanding Player.
Why they won’t win:
Depending on how much stock you put into common opponents, Arizona’s second half comeback against Purdue in the Elite Eight may have drastically shifted your outlook on this matchup.
Michigan’s ceiling is better than any other team in the entire field. The issue comes when they don’t reach those levels. As seen against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship, the Wolverines are susceptible to runs. In that contest, the Boilermakers came out of the locker room and shot out for a 24-11 run to start the second half.
Arizona did something similar, using a 48-26 second half advantage to overcome a deficit at the halfway point. This is one of those games where Michigan can’t afford to let their foot off the gas.
No. 1 Seed Arizona
Why they will win:
The Wildcats have dropped just two games all season. Both came in February, and one came with Koa Peat playing just 11 minutes due to injury.
Arizona’s size allows them to dominate physically, while both Peat and Brayden Burries have improved dramatically across their freshman seasons. That’s not to mention the presence of arguable AP All-American snub Jaden Bradley.
An offense that’s only getting better while sitting in the top 15 nationally in scoring, the Wildcats also hold the second-best KenPom defensive ranking. That combination will be hard to overcome.
Why they won’t win:
Michigan ranks just one spot lower offensively in the KenPom rankings than Arizona. Arizona ranks only one spot below Michigan defensively. These two teams are as close to each other competitively as it gets. Some have even called this game the de facto National Championship.
One area that Michigan does hold an advantage is perimeter shooting.
Though neither team takes an exceptional number of three-point attempts, this tendency for Arizona is far more drastic. While the Wolverines rank just outside the top 100 in three-point attempts per game, the Wildcats took the sixth least per contest in the country out of 361 teams, according to the NCAA website.
Despite taking 348 more shots from beyond the arc, the Wolverines still had a slightly higher shooting percentage from deep. Michigan currently sits at 36.9% on the year, while Arizona trails close behind at 36.7%.
The Wolverines will have this edge in their back pocket if things do end up getting close in the final minutes.
No. 3 Seed Illinois
Why they will win:
Based on KenPom rankings, Illinois has the best offense in the country. As evidenced by the Iowa contest in the Elite Eight, the Fighting Illini can score in a lot of different ways and it all starts with Keaton Wagler. The Second Team AP All-American led the team with 25 points, while Andrej Stojakovic scored 17 off the bench.
Putting up 43 as a team in the second half to overcome Iowa’s quest for a Cinderella run, they demonstrated just how relentless their offense can be.
Why they won’t win:
Though still within the top 20 of the KenPom rankings, Illinois is the worst defensive team remaining. While not poor by any means, every advantage matters when each team you play from this point on ranks in the top 30 of the KenPom offensive rankings.
It’s less concerning after the Fighting Illini held each of their last three tournament opponents under 60 points and scored over 100 on the only one they let brush 70.
Still, if they get past Connecticut, a big if considering what happened back in November, they’ll find a top five KenPom offenses staring back at them in the bracket.
No. 2 Seed UConn
Why they will win:
If luck is truly in the essence of preparation, then the Huskies must have been exceptionally prepared against Duke, because you don’t overcome a 1.3% chance of winning just minutes from halftime without luck being in your favor.
The Huskies are the most experienced team in the country and that all starts with Alex Karaban. The two-time National Champion is in the midst of the best personal tournament performance of his career, which is saying a lot about a guy who has an 18-1 career March Madness record.
It’s hard to quantify the impact of experience and a winning culture, but effort on defense may be one strategy. The NCAA’s highest scoring defense remaining, the Huskies bottled Duke up for 28 second half points.
Why they won’t win:
The three-point line has not been the Huskies’ friend in this tournament. UConn is shooting 29% from three so far in the tournament and fell under 30% against both Duke and Furman.
Some positive regression is likely in order, but a 5 of 23 evening like they had against Duke won’t cut it in the Final Four.