Box Office Breakdown: ‘Shang-Chi’ marvels again

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In its fourth week of release, the Marvel Studios release “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” leads again at the domestic box-office. With a gross of around $13.3 million, “Shang-Chi” passes “Black Widow” to become the highest grossing film of the 2021 domestic box-office. It extends its domestic gross to just above $196 million, making it a lock to pass the $200 million mark next weekend. It dropped only 39% this weekend, another solid hold for the film. When it’s all said and done, I expect “Shang-Chi” to have a total domestic gross around $245 million. 

Coming in second at the weekend box-office is the musical adaptation “Dear Evan Hansen.” The film grossed a disappointing $7.5 million, well below prognosticator expectations. While it only carries a reported $28 million budget, this gross is quite disappointing. With very poor critical reception and controversy surrounding the lead actor due to a variety of issues, the box-office hopes of “Dear Evan Hansen” appear to be virtually destroyed. That being said, the film did nab an “A-” CinemaScore, a measure in audience response to a film, which bodes well for the film’s word-of-mouth. Still, I expect a drop of around 40-45% next week. 

In third place, in its seventh weekend in the top three, is “Free Guy.” To put this film’s box-office run in perspective, it was released in the second weekend of August. We’re now done with the month of September from box-office standards and “Free Guy” is still high on the charts. With a drop of only 19% this weekend, there is a non-zero chance that it stays in the top five another week, even with three new releases. The film has now grossed just below $115 million domestically and with its legs, I think $135 million is in reach. 

In fourth and fifth place this weekend are “Candyman” and “Cry Macho,” grossing $2.5 million and $2.1 million respectively. For a horror film, the holds on “Candyman” have been truly extraordinary, with only a weekend-to-weekend drop of 29%. With holds like these, “Candyman” now has a great chance to clear $60 million domestically. 

“Shang-Chi” has a reign on top of the box-office that will come to an end next weekend, with three new releases coming to theaters. The new films are: “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” “The Many Saints of Newark” and “The Addams Family 2.” 

A new number one is virtually guaranteed with the release of the new “Venom” film. The 2018 film made $213 million domestically, on its way to over $850 worldwide. While we’re certainly in a new environment as we were back then, it’s hard to believe the sequel won’t at least make $150 million here in North America. I expect an opening of between $50 and $60 million, leaning a bit toward the higher end. 

“The Many Saints of Newark” is a movie-prequel to the critically acclaimed series “The Sopranos.” The only thing that will hurt its box-office prospects is its free viewing option streaming on HBO Max day-and-date of its release. Ultimately, this has proven to be box-office poison for films for older audiences with movies like “Cry Macho,” “Malignant” and “Reminiscence” all struggling to attract theater-going audiences. Because of that, I expect an opening of between $7 and $12 million, leaning on the low end. 

The other new release is the animated film “The Addams Family 2.” Now, the first “Addams Family” movie grossed $100 million in 2019, but we live in a totally different world for family films now. “The Addams Family 2” is releasing day-and-date on video on-demand platforms (including iTunes, Google Play and Amazon Prime Video) for rent and purchase. This will most certainly deplete some of its box office revenue. I expect an opening between $5 and $13 million, with its final gross depending on the success of its VOD release. 

Ultimately, this is all conjecture.   

We predict all we want, but the truth will not arrive until next weekend. See you then. 

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