Spin’s Fantasy Football Factory: Booms and busts for Week 11

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Well, this is awkward. After claiming to be the king of the weekly boom and bust predictions for fantasy football, I was able to correctly predict… one out of six predictions in Week 10. On the bright side, it’s not like I completely missed on the other five picks. Terry McLaurin and Najee Harris didn’t exactly boom or bust, but my claims that Tyreek Hill and D’Ernest Johnson would bust while Mike Gesicki would boom are now laughable. Nonetheless, the show must go on, so here are my picks for who will boom and bust in Week 11 of the NFL season. 

Boom – Allen Robinson, WR, CHI vs. BAL 

Allen Robinson has simply not been the fantasy player that managers predicted coming into the season. In fact, he’s been borderline droppable in 12-team leagues and is far from a starter in leagues where he is still rostered. However, I’m here to shine some light on what has thus far been a disastrous season for A-Rob. In Week 9, Bears quarterback Justin Fields recorded his best game since being named Chicago’s full-time starter, and Robinson put together his best fantasy performance as a result. Last week’s bye gave Chicago the opportunity to rework some of its gameplan, and hopefully that means Robinson will become more involved in the offensive approach. This may be wishful thinking, but I like to believe in a world where Robinson is a full-time starter for fantasy purposes. This pick could easily go either way, but I’ll put my dignity on the line and predict that Robinson is amongst the best wide receivers in Week 11. 

Bust – Mike Williams, WR, LAC vs. PIT 

Through the first five weeks of the season, including a Week 4 dud, Williams was averaging 23.22 PPR fantasy points per game, an elite rate for the wide receiver. However, in four games since then, Williams’ highest fantasy point total came in Week 9 against the Eagles. He recorded two catches for 58 yards, enough for 7.8 fantasy points. Over that same stretch, fellow Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen’s lowest fantasy total has been 10 points, and he has run away from Williams as the clear number one wide receiver, leading the team in catches, targets, and receiving yards. It seems that ESPN and Yahoo leagues still think that Williams will continue to record solid stats, as he’s projected to score 12.51 and 14.78 points, respectively. I simply don’t think that his recent skid will turn around that easily. 

Boom – AJ Dillon, RB, GB at MIN 

Dillon has shown glimpses of being an elite NFL running back despite splitting playing time with Pro-Bowler Aaron Jones. However, after Jones went down last with an injury that may keep him sidelined for multiple weeks last Sunday against the Seahawks, Dillon stepped up to the tune of 21 rush attempts, 128 total yards and two touchdowns. Now, with Green Bay’s backfield all to himself, Dillon’s ceiling is essentially limitless for fantasy football purposes. The Connecticut native will take on the Vikings middling run defense this Sunday, but with volume and potential as both a rusher and receiver on his side, he easily slots in as a fantasy starter despite not seeing such an expanded role in his young career. Bold prediction: he finishes this week as fantasy’s No. 1 overall running back. 

Bust – Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND at BUF 

How can Jonathan Taylor, the number one running back in fantasy football and the man who’s compiled 1,240 total yards and ten total touchdowns through ten games, possibly be on the receiving end of one of Spin’s Fantasy Football’s bust predictions? Well, to keep things simple, Taylor and the Colts will be taking on Buffalo’s elite defense this week, a defense that has been extremely successful at taking away their opponent’s best offensive weapon. Last week, that meant intercepting the Jets’ Mike White four times, and the week before, that meant holding Jaguars leading rusher Carlos Hyde to a measly 3.1 yards per carry. This week, they’ll be trying to take the ball out of Taylor’s hands early and often. Against one of the league’s best run defenses, I could see Taylor recording his worst game of the season. 

Boom – Dan Arnold, TE, JAX vs. SF 

We live in a world where Dan Arnold may be the top pass-catching option for a professional football franchise in the NFL. He began the season as a Carolina Panther, was traded to Jacksonville after Week 3, and since Week 4, he hasn’t seen fewer than five targets per game. In fact, he’s averaging eight targets per game over the past three weeks and has topped 60 yards in all three games. Especially in PPR leagues, Arnold has been a consistent play, and he’ll figure to carry his sizable workload through the season’s end. He has yet to score a touchdown this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cross the pylon to put the cherry on top of a respectable stat line against San Francisco this Sunday. 

Bust – Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT at LAC 

A player that many fantasy managers selected as a potential sleeper pick, Freiermuth has been capitalizing on an expanded role ever since he’s seen his target share increase in Week 6. He’s not a flashy play at the tight end position, but he’s been getting the job done for managers that have taken the risk and have rolled him out as a starter in fantasy matchups. However, after a Week 10 matchup where he drew nine targets, Freiermuth is due to regress at some point, and a Sunday Night Football matchup against the run-funnel Chargers seems like the game where it will happen. Simply put, after last week’s game against the Lions in which quarterback Mason Rudolph attempted a whopping 50 passes, the ball won’t be in the air as much against a better Los Angeles pass defense. 

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