In last week’s column, I made the claim that “Spider-Man: No Way Home” would likely finish fourth in the all-time domestic box-office, behind the 2009 juggernaut “Avatar.”
Well, I was wrong.
Though it hasn’t yet passed the $749 million domestic cume of “Avatar,” the wall-crawling hero’s film grossed another $14.1 million this weekend, on an incredible 29.7% drop. This pushed the Marvel Studios and Sony co-production to $721 million domestically, putting it less than $30 million behind the third-place James Cameron picture. Though “Spider-Man” has a long way to go to pass “Avatar,” its week-to-week drops make it seem quite likely. A 50% drop is average, 40% is good, 30% is great and below 30% is incredible. The box office legs that “Spider-Man” (no pun intended) has are what gives it a great chance to clear “Avatar” domestically and to move into the top three of the domestic box office all time. Unfortunately for the superhero flick, “Avatar 2” will be released this December, so its time on the podium may be quite short.
In second place is last weekend’s number one – “Scream.” Like most horror films, “Scream” had a decent-sized drop in its second weekend of 58.7%, grossing $12.4 million. With a domestic total of now $51 million, my estimate last week that the film would only gross around $60 million domestically is looking highly inaccurate. If the film can have some decent holds these next few weeks, I think that $75 million is in play for this film. If it can reach that total, the film will almost be a lock to make a profit with its reported budget of $24 million (remember this does not factor in marketing expenses).
In third place is the animated musical “Sing 2” which put together another nice weekend with $5.7 million of additional gross. With an impressive 28.5% drop, the song-filled endeavor climbed to $128 million domestically. Family films are known for their box office legs, and “Sing 2” is no exception, continuing to last on the charts in its fifth week. With only one major release next weekend, I think that it’s all but guaranteed that “Sing 2” lasts another week in the top 5.
Coming in fourth and fifth on the charts this weekend are “Redeeming Love” and “The King’s Man,” with $3.7 million and $1.8 million respectively. “Redeeming Love” was absolutely lambasted by critics upon its release, but seems to have gotten a decent audience reception, garnering a “B+” CinemaScore. We will see if the romantic movie can last another week in the top five. “The King’s Man” has struggled in its box office run, but it had a solid weekend, incredibly only dropping 19.7%. Unfortunately, this is just too little too late for the R-rated action flick which will likely not eclipse $40 million domestically.
Next weekend comes just one new theatrical wide release – “Cyrano.” The adaptation of the famed Edmond Rostand play stars Peter Dinklage and is directed by Joe Wright. Adult-oriented dramas have not fared well at the pandemic box-office, making me think this film will gross between $6 million and $10 million this weekend.
The sheer variety of the charts is what keeps us coming back to them. We’ve got “Spider-Man” breaking records, “Scream” looking to make a sizeable profit, “Sing 2” putting up remarkable holds and “Redeeming Love” and “The King’s Man” just trying to stay afloat.
Who knows what next week will bring?