Box Office Breakdown: “Knock at the Cabin” bursts into first 


“Avatar: The Way of Water”’s streak is over. After seven weeks atop the domestic charts, “Knock at the Cabin” knocked the James Cameron epic off its perch. 

The M. Night Shyamalan thriller opened to $14.2 million this weekend, securing the number one spot. With a reported $20 million production budget, factoring in marketing and the theatrical share of revenue, the film has a worldwide break-even point of around $77 million. Of that $77 million, around $42 million will likely need to be domestic earnings. “Knock at the Cabin” will need a 3x multiplier to reach that number, which may seem unlikely for a horror film, but Shyamalan’s previous film “Old” achieved a 2.86x multiplier in 2021. We will see how the film holds in the coming weeks. 

“80 for Brady” is second this weekend, opening to $12.5 million. With a reported $28 million production budget, taking into account marketing and the theatrical share of revenue, the film has a break-even point of around $90 million. With only a $12.5 million opening, all of which was domestic earnings, reaching that total seems quite unlikely. Additionally considering the premise of the “80 for Brady” (which surrounds a trip to the Super Bowl to see Tom Brady), with American football not having a major global audience beyond the domestic market, it is difficult to see this film earning a significant sum internationally. That being said, you never know with the box office. 

In third place this weekend is “Avatar: The Way of Water” with a gross of $10.8 million. The film fell 32% in its 8th weekend, increasing its domestic sum to $636 million. With this jump, the film passed 2012’s “Avengers” to become the 10th highest grossing film of all time domestically. In the next two weekends, in all likelihood, “The Way of Water” will pass “Jurassic World” and “Titanic” to become the 8th highest grossing film domestically. On the worldwide front, the film is on the verge of breaking $2.2 billion worldwide and passing “Titanic” to move into No. 3 all-time globally. 

In fourth and fifth this weekend are “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” and “BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas” with $7.95 million and $6.3 million respectively. “Puss in Boots” held well again, falling only 24.3%, now having cleared $150 million domestically. “BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas” is a concert film from the eponymous group. It is a filming of their October 2022 Busan concert which was played to 50,000 fans. With over $9 million made thus far domestically, BTS’ newest foray in the concert film genre is another success. 

Next week brings one new wide release — “Magic Mike’s Last Dance.” The previous film in the franchise, “Magic Mike XXL” opened to $12.8 million in 2015. I think the film will open to $15 million next weekend. 

Will “Knock at the Cabin” defend its No. 1 spot or will “Magic Mike’s Last Dance” close the weekend in first? 

As always, we shall see. 

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