While “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” won the box office again this past weekend, the superhero film still lost big. With a 69.7% drop, “Quantumania” fell significantly in its second weekend. The film grossed $32 million, pushing its domestic sum to $167 million. As we said last week, it will take a 3.15x multiplier (total gross/opening weekend) for the third “Ant-Man” film to break even. With a near 70% second weekend drop, the film has only attained around a 1.57x multiplier thus far. Unless it has some surprise late legs, the film is not likely to profit. We shall see if “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” will bring Marvel Studios a needed win in May.
Second place is the film that has lit social media ablaze – “Cocaine Bear.” The film rose high above expectations, earning $23.3 million in its opening weekend. With a budget reportedly near $35 million, the film needs to gross around $128 million worldwide to profit, with likely $85 million of that coming domestically. The second value depends on the gross in some international markets where it hasn’t been released, but the total still remains. The good news for “Cocaine Bear” — the film currently sits at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, which bodes well for its legs. However, it only earned a “B-” CinemaScore, meaning audiences may not be loving it as much as expected. With a $23.3 million opening, it will need around a 3.6x multiple to profit. Much of that will be reliant on these next two weekends, so we will keep a careful eye on “Cocaine Bear.”
Third this weekend is an entrant we were not expecting — “Jesus Revolution.” The faith-based drama earned $15.8 million in its opening weekend, well above most expectations. While the film has earned tepid critical reception, “Jesus Revolution” has garnered acclaim from general audiences, earning a rare “A+” CinemaScore. That will most certainly boost word-of-mouth marketing, posing well for future weekends. However “Jesus Revolution” will need it. Priced fairly high near $15 million, it will need to gross around $44 million to profit. Needing a multiplier just south of 3x, “Jesus Revolution” needs crowds to continue to show up in future weekends to break even.
In fourth and fifth place are the iron men of the 2023 box office charts — “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” which grossed $4.9 million and $4.1 million respectively. Eleven weekends in and “Avatar” is still in the top five, falling only 25.8%. It officially passed “Jurassic World” to become the ninth highest grossing film domestically all time, with $655 million earned thus far. Up next on the domestic charts — “Titanic.” “Puss in Boots” fell 22.8% to push its domestic total to $173 million. This also moved the film into 17th place on the all-time domestic charts for films that have never had a weekend at No. 1.
Next week brings the release of two new films — “Creed III” and “Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre.”
“Creed III” is the third film in the “Rocky” spin-off franchise starring Michael B. Jordan, who also directs. With strong critical reception thus far, I expect the film to open to $35 million. “Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre” is an action comedy from Guy Ritchie starring Jason Statham and Aubrey Plaza. Earning decent reviews from critics abroad, I expect it to earn $14 million next weekend.
Will “Creed III” knockout “Ant-Man” or will “Operation Fortune” plan its way into first place?
As always, we shall see.