Box Office Breakdown: “John Wick: Chapter 4” fights to a $73 million opening


Last week, I predicted that “John Wick: Chapter 4” would break the franchise’s opening weekend record with a $68 million gross. 

I underestimated John Wick. 

The sequel earned $73.5 million in its opening weekend, demolishing the franchise’s record. Armed with a 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A” CinemaScore, both critics and audiences alike have raved about the famed assassin’s newest chapter. With a reported $100+ million budget, factoring in marketing and the theatrical share of revenue, the film needs to gross around $375 million to break even. Of that $375 million, if we use the basis of a 1.1 domestic to international revenue ratio, “Chapter 4” will need to earn around $196 million domestically. This means it will need at least a 2.67x multiplier. While it does face competition with “Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” next week and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” the week after, with strong audience and critical reception, I think “John Wick: Chapter 4” will reach that multiplier with relative ease. 

In second place is “Creed III” earning $10.4 million in its fourth weekend. While it continues its box office success, the film is now mired in controversy as one of its stars, Jonathan Majors, was arrested for assault this weekend. While Majors’ lawyer has pushed back against the charges, this news does not bode well for the “Creed” sequel. That being said, it has earned $140 million domestically thus far and by my estimates a few weeks ago, it will only need $160 million to officially break even. Even amidst the controversy, it is still likely to hit that total, but we shall see if it has a substantial effect next week. 

Third place is last week’s no. 1 film, “Shazam: Fury of the Gods.” Just as we predicted, it fell hard this weekend, dipping 68% to earn $9.7 million in its second weekend. With only $46 million earned thus far, “Fury of the Gods” has a difficult path to earning even $75 million domestically. While we don’t know all the plans for the new Gunn-Safran led DC Universe, it’s not looking likely that “Shazam” will be a part of that world. 

In fourth and fifth this week are “Scream VI” and “65” with $8.4 million and $3.25 million respectively. “Scream VI” continued its impressive run with a 52% third weekend drop, pushing its domestic total to $89.9 million. With $139 million earned worldwide thus far, “Scream VI” has already likely broken even. “65” unfortunately has not. With less than $50 million earned worldwide on at least a $45 million production budget, “65” is going to end in the red. While it did only drop 45%, it is probably too little too late. 

Next week brings the worldwide opening of “Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.” The film has earned strong critical reception thus far, boasting a 90% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. That being said, there are profitability concerns as it reportedly has a $151 million budget. I think it will earn $35 million in its opening weekend, with possibly some strong legs in its future weekends. 

Will “Dungeons and Dragons” roll into first place or will “John Wick: Chapter 4” hold its ground atop the charts? 

As always, we shall see. 

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