As the NBA season is set to kick off tonight, the speculation of who will win Most Valuable Player is already in full swing. The award has been dominated by the big man in recent years, with the last five MVPs going to players 6’ 11’’ or taller. This will be the year that the trend changes, as the meteoric rise of one guard will hit its peak. That player is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has transformed into a superstar in recent years, only improving.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a 6′ 6’’ guard out of Kentucky who began his career with the LA Clippers in 2018. After nine games on the bench his rookie season, he’s started every game he’s played since. Despite being a regular starter, Gilgeous-Alexander notched just 10.8 points per game on the Los Angeles team that completed the largest comeback in NBA playoff history in the first round against the Warriors. They went on to lose the series, and it was the Torontonian’s last time suiting up for the Clippers.
A part of the landmark trade that sent Paul George to LA, Gilgeous-Alexander joined the OKC Thunder alongside Chris Paul in 2019. The two meshed well in his sophomore season, as Gilgeous-Alexander’s points per game mark ballooned to 19. The team did well to finish fifth in the west, but their momentum was halted by COVID-19. Paul, who impressed in OKC, was sent to Phoenix, with the Thunder resolving to rebuild their team around Gilgeous-Alexander.
The shortened 2020-21 NBA season was even shorter for the Wildcat, as he suited up just 35 times, thanks to a season-ending plantar fascia tear. His next season was longer but also ended prematurely thanks to an ankle injury. Things really started to improve for Gilgeous-Alexander in the 2022-23 season.
Last year, he averaged 31 points with five assists, five boards and a career-high 1.6 steals. The team showed growth throughout the season but ultimately fell one game short of the playoffs, losing to the Timberwolves in the final play-in game.
This time around, all the pieces are there for Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are set to have their best campaign since he arrived in 2019, with an athletic roster built to complement his playstyle. Josh Giddey, a third-year Australian combo-guard, will do his part in taking the pressure off ‘SGA’ as a primary distributor. Giddey will continue to defer to Gilgeous-Alexander for shots but has the ability to make defenders pay for focusing too hard on SGA with his passing and developing shooting stroke.
Lu Dort has long been a defensive anchor, and Jalen Williams is likely to make a sophomore jump after a surprisingly productive rookie season. Not to mention Chet Holmgren, a massive pick and roll threat alongside Gilgeous-Alexander, who will make his NBA debut after missing his first year to a foot injury. The team is well-constructed, with decent shooters for SGA to pass to, Holmgren; as a fantastic lob-threat and great defense.
Many are underestimating the Thunder, but they have a chance to finish in the top five in the Western Conference. That has been the primary issue for Gilgeous-Alexander so far. He’s put up MVP stats, but on a team that hasn’t been successful. With the Thunder developing their young core together, there’s something to be said for chemistry. Not many teams have this much lineup continuity and such youth. This is a similar situation to college basketball’s Marquette last year, where a team that kept all their best players skyrocketed from sixth place of 11 in the Big East all the way to the top spot the next season.
Still on the better side of his prime years at 25 years old, Gilgeous-Alexander is positioned to put up similar scoring numbers as he did last year. He’s also never had a big man as versatile as Holmgren to work with, an aspect that will help tremendously. Holmgren will be able to lock up the paint when needed and also can stretch the floor, opening up driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander, who is one of the league’s best finishers.
The team does lack elite shooting, but SGA will be able to lead the effort with his unconventional but effective jumper. All said, the team isn’t likely to win the championship. They will be competitive against every team they play, though, and should make the playoffs. If Gilgeous-Alexander is able to lead this squad to a top-five finish while slightly boosting his statistics, he’s in great shape to win MVP. His individual play has been there, but this is the year that the team’s success catches up to secure the award. Vegas gives SGA the seventh shortest odds to win it, but he’ll overcome the six ahead of him and become the Thunder’s first MVP-winner since 2017.