As has become a typical winter tradition, the UConn women’s basketball team is facing injury adversity. It’s only January, but they already have sustained what feels like four years worth of injuries. Regardless, the No. 8 Huskies have remained resilient. After starting 4-3 and seemingly losing a different player for the year every time they set foot on the court, things have stabilized.
Aside from losing sixth-man Aubrey Griffin to an ACL tear, there’s been continuity in their past several games. This has allowed the team to actually develop a flow together and the results have shown. In Connecticut’s 12-game streak, they got it started with a solid win over No. 24 UNC and a walloping of No. 18 Louisville.
As impressive as those were, even more encouraging were their back to back victories against No. 18 Marquette and No. 21 Creighton, neither of which were remotely close. Their combined margin was +75, a demonstration of sheer dominance that’s been rarer in recent years. Since that pair, the Huskies have taken care of business, beating unranked Big East teams with even more ease.
Upcoming matchups against No. 19 Notre Dame and No. 1 South Carolina should make it easier to figure out where they stand, but let’s take a look at the roster, the ceiling and the floor and what this means for them longer term.
ROSTER
The guard depth is exceptional for the Huskies. Especially with the way their freshmen have shown up, there’s not another team in the country that could definitively beat them in a backcourt battle. Spearheading the effort is Paige Bueckers, who is returning to the form that saw her win the 2021 National Player of the Year. She’s at around 20 points per game and has the star-guard shot-making abilities that can help a team overperform down the stretch.
Joining her is Nika Mühl, who struggled a bit to start the season, largely because it took time to figure out her role with Bueckers back in the fold. With the ball always in her hands last year with Bueckers sidelined, Mühl was the sole point guard. Though it took some adjusting, she and Bueckers have figured out the mix of scoring and passing that works for each of them and are playing off each other nicely.
The three freshmen guards have done what’s been needed. Ashlynn Shade, fresh off a 21 point performance, is looking like she will be a key cog for the Huskies for as long as she’s around. KK Arnold, while quiet at times, has shown a killer instinct and has been excellent on the defensive end. Qadence Samuels has been good enough, but the team would benefit from more confidence as she looks to make the most of her limited playing time.
At the forward spots, this is where UConn is thin. They have 6-foot-3 Aaliyah Edwards manning the middle and she’s done a great job. She’s putting up nearly identical numbers to her All-American campaign last year and it’s difficult to find too many faults with her in the scope of UConn’s larger frontcourt issues.
After Edwards, there’s no obvious options. Redshirt freshman Ice Brady has been decent in moments. It’s hard to see her being the answer given her recent production though. Aside from a 17 point outburst against St. John’s, Brady has left much to be desired. It’s unlikely she’ll be effective against a team like South Carolina, or another squad that has a pair of great bigs. Edwards can handle one, but not two elite forwards. And Amari DeBerry has been out of the picture for a while.
CEILING
The ceiling for this team is the same as it always is: a national championship. It feels unlikely at this point given the aforementioned lack of depth up front, but magical things could happen with the right draw. Bueckers has the talent to be the lead guard on a national championship roster. They have the guard pieces. But things need to go nearly perfectly in a way unlike most of the other UConn championships. A title is far from a foregone conclusion. But it is possible.
FLOOR
Similar to last year, the floor is a Sweet 16 exit. As long as they host the first round, the Huskies likely aren’t losing in Storrs. But after that, they’re not safe. If they end up as a two seed and face a team like LSU (currently No. 10 nationally), they could easily lose. UConn’s success in March is very matchup-dependent, making this season’s NCAA tournament very intriguing.
PROJECTION
As for a projection, the Elite Eight seems fair. This is a very talented squad, but they don’t have the same powerful frontcourt as their all-time great teams have boasted. If they end up as a two and make it to the regional final, then they’ve done what they’re supposed to. With all the injuries this team has sustained, an Elite Eight appearance would be a win, even if it wouldn’t feel like it given the program’s long line of success.