Championship Sunday brought two exciting matchups: the Chiefs against the Ravens and the Lions against the 49ers. The Chiefs handled business in Baltimore, setting up a highly anticipated matchup between Detroit and San Francisco.
Dan Campbell, the Lions’ head coach hoping to bring his team to the franchise’s first Super Bowl ever, is known to make aggressive play calls in crucial moments. It’s a big gamble, and it may have lost Detroit’s best chance at a Super Bowl appearance.
The Lions had a 24-7 lead at halftime, leaving the team feeling even more confident about their chances to get to Las Vegas, where the Super Bowl will be held on Feb. 11.
The 49ers are debatably the best all-around team in the NFL. That showed in the second half. Quarterback Brock Purdy and the Niners scored on every drive outside when they kneeled to end the game. The Nick Bosa-led San Francisco defense did not allow any points until a touchdown with just under a minute remaining in the game.
According to StatMuse, the Lions converted more fourth downs than any team this season except the Carolina Panthers. Campbell’s squad was successful 21 times on fourth down.
However, the Lions’ aggression has cost them games.
With a one-score game and a four-point lead against the Seahawks, the Lions turned the ball over on downs at their 45-yard line. While chewing the clock, the Seahawks took the lead and never gave it back to Detroit on a 45-yard drive for a touchdown.
Following a touchdown by Amon-Ra St. Brown, Campbell decided to go for two despite an extra point tying the game up at 20 with the Cowboys. While penalties put the team in a tough position to convert the two-point attempt, Campbell kept the offense on the field and, as a result, Detroit quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to St. Brown failed to give Detroit the lead.
When Goff was asked about his team’s aggressiveness on fourth downs, he replied, “I love ‘em. We gotta convert.”
Midway through the third quarter, the Lions were at the 28-yard line in San Francisco territory with a 4th & 2 coming up. A field goal would have given Detroit a three-score lead. But instead, Goff tried to find wide receiver Josh Reynolds in hopes of continuing the drive. He was unsuccessful and the lead remained at 14.
With seven minutes and 32 seconds left to play, the Lions trailed by a field goal and were well within field goal range with a 4th and short decision to make.
Kicker Michael Badgley had not seen the field much this season outside extra points. He went 13-15 on extra points and 4-4 on field goals, the longest being 41 yards.
However, Campbell decided to keep the offense on the field with hopes of continuing the drive and potentially getting even more points.
The safe decision to make would be to kick the field goal. However, Campbell did not trust Badgley to kick a 47-yarder to tie the game at 27 apiece.
Goff looked for St. Brown, his top receiver, hoping to bounce back from turning the ball over on downs earlier in the half. However, the pass fell short, making the 49ers’ door to Sin City open wider.
As the offense continued to go to work, the 49ers went down the field for a touchdown by second-string running back Elijah Mitchell with three minutes remaining.
Mitchell’s touchdown extended San Francisco’s lead to two scores, giving the Lions one long-shot opportunity to climb back into a game they choked.
Goff did an excellent job marching down the field in a two-minute drill to cut the deficit to a field goal. However, with an onside kick recovered by the 49ers, the game was out of reach.
The 49ers punched their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII with one of the best comebacks in National Football Conference Championship history, setting up a rematch of Super Bowl LIV with the Chiefs. They won by three points, the same number of points Campbell could have gotten back if he decided not to be so aggressive on fourth down.
Campbell said he didn’t regret his decisions because it is the identity of his team. However, if he wants to even think about having another run in the NFL Playoffs, he might want to reconsider just how aggressive he should be in certain situations.