68 teams were given tickets to the Big Dance on Sunday, with UConn claiming the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in program history. While they are the favorites to cut down the nets in Arizona, some teams have the potential to go deep in the NCAA Tournament that will fly under people’s radars, while some teams were overrated in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee.
In this edition of Sam’s Section, we will look at the teams that were underseeded but still can make a run in this tournament, along with the most overrated teams.
Underrated
Auburn Tigers (27-7, No. 4 seed in East Region)
How are the SEC Tournament champions a No. 4 seed? The NCAA selection committee screwed up here, as Auburn is one of the best teams in terms of metrics. The Tigers are 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have the lowest opponent effective FG% in the country (43.4%) and rank top-10 in defending shots from 3-point range and inside the arc. Johni Broome is one of the best players in the nation and was named to the AP All-American Third Team on Tuesday. He ranks second on the KenPom Player of the Year standings. UConn was a No. 4 seed in last year’s run to a national title. While the Tigers would likely have to get past the defending champions, they are without a doubt the best No. 4 seed in the tournament. Yale is their first opponent, who they will face on Friday at 4:15 p.m. on TNT.
Dayton Flyers (24-7, No. 7 seed in West Region)
Dayton was the overwhelming favorite to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament before falling to eventual champion Duquesne on Thursday. The Flyers’ offense ranks 18th in adjusted efficiency while posting one of the best 3-point percentages in the country (40.2%). The Flyers are led by All-American DaRon Holmes II, who will provide one exciting play after another as head coach Anthony Grant looks to lead his team deep. Dayton will begin their tournament run with No. 10 seed Nevada on Thursday at 4:30 p.m. on TBS.
New Mexico Lobos (26-9, No. 11 seed in West Region)
Do not be surprised if New Mexico is the Cinderella team this year. The Lobos are ranked No. 23 on KenPom and are coming off four games in four days to win the Mountain West Tournament. They have a favorable matchup against Clemson and could make a run to potentially face Arizona in the Sweet 16. Donovan Dent and Jamal Mashburn Jr. lead the way, coached by Richard Pitino (not to be confused with Rick Pitino). They defend the 3-point line well and do not cause many turnovers on offense. Their tempo is eighth in the country, so expect them to outrun Clemson in the first round on Friday at 3:10 p.m. on truTV.
Overrated
Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7, No. 5 seed in Midwest Region)
Can someone explain to me what makes Gonzaga a No. 5 seed? Their offense does rank ninth in the country and their defense is in the top 50 nationally, but their wins do not add up. The only teams they beat in non-conference play this year were Yale and Kentucky. They lost two of three games to Saint Mary’s, also on the same seed line as them. The Bulldogs play in a subpar West Coast Conference that is very top-heavy, and they could be in for a test with Will Wade’s McNeese State team on Thursday at 7:25 p.m. on TBS.
Michigan State Spartans (19-14, No. 9 seed in West Region)
Michigan State was safely in? Give me a break. As much as I love head coach Tom Izzo and the Spartans’ defense, which ranks eighth in the country, they do not have a lot of strong wins. 14 losses is a lot, including brutal ones to James Madison and Minnesota. They beat Baylor, Illinois and Northwestern, but those are the only victories that opened my eyes. I love their roster, especially leading guard Tyson Walker, but I do not see them going far in the NCAA Tournament. They only have three Quad 1 wins and five Quad 2 losses. The Big Ten was overrated this year. The Spartans will kick off the first round of the NCAA Tournament against Mississippi State on Thursday at 12:15 p.m. on CBS.
Virginia Cavaliers (23-10, No. 10 seed in Midwest Region)
They will have already played by the time this is published, but Virginia did not look like an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes. Their offense is atrocious, ranking 310th in the nation in 2-point percentage (46.8%) and showing abysmal free-throw shooting ability. The Cavaliers are a defense-heavy team, to the point where I call them the Iowa football of college basketball because of their strong defense and subpar offense. They did get wins over a handful of NCAA Tournament teams but had a 2-7 Quad 1 record. That screams “first four out” status to me, but they’re in the field, playing a play-in game against Colorado State last night. If Virginia contends in their NCAA Tournament games, expect the defense from star guard Reece Beekman to be the reason why.