The 2023-23 offseason was not a particularly busy one for the Boston Red Sox. They made a few moves, though none were notable enough to warrant extensive media attention or praise from the fans. Yet, the team has had one of the better starts to the new baseball campaign in all of Major League Baseball. Now, looking back at this last offseason, it’s clear that one move has paid dividends immediately and should continue to in the future.
The funny thing is that the move wasn’t even to bring in a player. Well, he was a player, but he’s long since turned in the jersey for a spot on an MLB coaching staff. The move was to hire Andrew Bailey as the team’s pitching coach.
The 39-year-old Bailey was a MLB reliever from 2009-2017. He made his MLB debut with the Oakland Athletics after being selected by the team in the sixth round of the 2006 MLB Draft. He was a two-time all-star with the A’s, including being named the 2009 American League Rookie of the Year. He was a member of the Red Sox from 2012-2013. For his career, Bailey amassed a 3.12 ERA and 95 saves to complement an ERA+ of 136. That means that throughout his career, he was an average of 36% better than the average MLB pitcher.
After his playing days ended, Bailey was hired as the instant replay coordinator and coaching assistant for the Los Angeles Angels before being named their bullpen coach in 2019. Prior to the 2020 season, he was hired by the San Francisco Giants as their pitching coach.
Bailey’s pitching philosophy differs from that of Boston’s previous pitching coach, Dave Bush. Under Bush, Red Sox pitchers threw off-speed pitches at the 21st highest rate in MLB. On the other hand, Bailey’s former employer in San Francisco threw off-speed pitches at the top rate in the Big Leagues. Now, Bailey has Boston’s starters throwing more off-speed pitches, proving immediate results.
All statistics used in this article reflect Boston’s pitching performance through the team’s first 10 games.
Last season, Boston pitchers allowed more hard contact to batters than this year’s team (4.0 weak hit % compared to 6.1%). They also allowed hitters to find the sweet spot of the bat and barrel up the baseball at a higher rate than this year’s team (7.9 barrel % compared to 5.7%). The results have been immediate; compared to last season, Red Sox pitchers have improved on their average exit velocity (89.1 MPH compared to 86.7 MPH), expected batting average (.243 compared to .214), expected slugging percentage (.408 compared to .350), expected weighted on-base average (.315 compared to .278) and average launch angle (12.1 degrees compared to 11.2 degrees).
Now, this Boston staff ranks first in the Majors in earned run average at a measly 1.48. They also rank in the top-five among all pitching staff in strikeouts, walks, saves, hit batters and home runs allowed.
To say that the job that Bailey has done in the early going would be an understatement, especially after Boston fans took aim at the front office for failing to acquire another notable starter this past offseason. In fact, this year’s Red Sox staff may have less noteworthy pitchers compared to last year’s after losing names such as Chris Sale and James Paxton to other teams. Instead, Bailey has made do with a unit headlined by the young Brayan Bello and composed of unlikely heroes such as Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford.
It’ll be interesting to see how Boston’s pitchers will fare for the remainder of the regular season. Many weren’t expecting the BoSox to be contenders in 2024, not due to a lack of offense but mainly due to pitching concerns. If those concerns can be ironed out and the unit stays healthy, a feisty Red Sox team could be on tap in the new campaign.