The new college football 12-team playoff has drawn excitement from fans for giving more teams a chance to win it all and for the first time, guaranteeing a spot for a non-power conference champion. Under the new system, the top four highest ranked conference winners earn automatic byes, while the next highest ranked champion will play in the first round. That fifth spot opens the door for the remaining conferences, known as the Group of Five. The battle for the right to a playoff berth is certain to spark intense competition between otherwise overlooked schools. Here are five of those teams that have the best chance to represent the Group of Five in the playoffs this year.
Boise State Broncos, Mountain West
Led by the best running back in college football, Ashton Jeanty, Boise State is currently ranked No. 21 in the nation, as of week five, with a 3-1 record. Their only loss came in a thriller against Oregon, where, if it weren’t for a late 100-yard kick return by the Ducks, Boise State might have earned an impressive top ten victory. Regardless, Jeanty shined in this game with 192 rushing yards and three touchdowns to nearly carry his team to the upset. He currently leads the FBS with 845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen, who won the starting job over former five-star Malachi Nelson, has managed the offense effectively, keeping the team on track. The Broncos hope to see improvements in their defense and special teams, but with Jeanty in the backfield, they’ll always be a threat to opposing teams.
UNLV Rebels, Mountain West
Another Mountain West squad, UNLV, is off to a hot start, ranked No. 25 and sitting at a 4-0 record. They’ve posted convincing wins over Houston, Utah Tech, and Fresno State, and notched a stunning win over Kansas. The Rebels have been the subject of numerous headlines in the past week after their starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, announced he would sit out the rest of the season due to NIL disputes. The Rebels quickly switched gears with their next QB in line, Hajj-Malik Williams, to drop 52 points over a potent defense in Fresno State. With their already strong resume and proven resilience, a Mountain West Conference championship could easily place them in the field of 12 in December.
Liberty Flames, Conference USA
Liberty had high expectations going into this season, after finishing last year ranked No. 25 in the country. However, being a part of a particularly weak conference means they have little room for error, especially without any power five schools on their schedule. At 4-0, Liberty essentially can’t afford to lose a single game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Led by quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley, the Flames hope to improve as their victories have been tighter than expected, failing to cover the spread in three of their four games. But if they find their stride and go undefeated, it’ll be hard to keep Liberty out of playoff discussions.
James Madison Dukes, Sun Belt
In just their third year at the FBS level, James Madison has already established itself as a G5 contender. The Dukes went 11-2 last season, winning the Sun Belt and defeating Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. Despite losing key pieces to the transfer portal, they’re 4-0, including a 70-point explosion against North Carolina in week three. Redshirt sophomore QB Alonza Barnett has been impressive, averaging 255 passing yards per game and passing for 12 touchdowns over four games. With a light schedule for the rest of the season, JMU has an opportunity to run the table and win the Sun Belt to push for a playoff spot, especially with their statement win over UNC on their resume already.
Navy Midshipmen, American
Never did I think I would be considering two military schools as playoff contenders, but here we are, with both Army and Navy boasting 4-0 records for the first time since 1945. However, between the two, Navy’s offense has proven to be a powerhouse, especially after pulling off a thrilling 56-44 victory over Memphis thanks to quarterback Blake Horvath’s four rushing touchdowns. Not to mention Running backs Brandon Chatman and Eli Heidenreich combined for three more. The Midshipmen’s dominant victories over Bucknell, Temple and UAB improved their case. However, the path to a playoff berth will be tough. A week 10 matchup with Notre Dame will likely define their season, but they’ll also need to navigate tough AAC opponents like Tulane, USF and of course, Army. Now just imagine an Army-Navy rematch for the AAC title and a playoff spot on the line. It may be wishful thinking, but we can dream.
It’s still early, and teams on this list may fall or rise as the year goes on season progresses. Perhaps another team will also establish itself in this race. And whoever the representative will ultimately be, they’ll presumably still have to get past the fifth best team in the nation in the first round. But we should know by now that college football is full of surprises, and the expanded playoffs only add to the unpredictability.