Well, here is it: the table is set. The New York Yankees have their best chance yet to get over their recent American League Championship Series (ALCS) hump, having lost in each of their last five appearances, and make it to the World Series this year. In order to get to the Fall Classic, New York will need to get through the Cleveland Guardians, which is no small feat. Cleveland had an excellent season, finishing atop the competitive American League Central with a 92-69 record and boasting one of the deepest bullpens in all Major League Baseball. However, the Yankees have a few paths to victory despite all these facets.
Sooner or later, the Yankees will need the bat of Aaron Judge to finally wake up. Despite owning an excellent slash of .322/.458/.701, 58 home runs and 144 RBIs, Judge has struggled to get it going in the American League Division Series (ALDS). Against the Royals, the 32-year-old slugger went 2-13 from the dish, although that doesn’t consider his five walks. Regardless, Judge’s performance is somewhat out of character, and there’s a good chance his playoff struggles don’t last much longer. After all, one of his outs in game three of that series came on a 114.2 MPH screamer right into the glove of Bobby Whitt Jr. It’s hard to see such a massive drop-off for Judge lasting much longer, considering how well he was mashing the ball all season. While the Yankees are talented enough to advance without his bat, as evidenced by their ALDS performance, the team would prefer that Judge get back up to speed as soon as possible, as the road to ring No. 28 becomes much more treacherous without him.
Another player whom Yankees manager Aaron Boone will need a big series from is Giancarlo Stanton, and with the way he has been mashing the baseball, New York shouldn’t expect any slowdown. The former Marlin was the Royal killer, batting nearly .400 from the plate with a clutch two-run home run in game two, sealing the deal for New York that night. Of course, the Yankees will also look for Juan Soto to continue his tear from the regular season, and there is no reason to believe that any moment is too big for the 25-year-old. Not only is Soto coming off an absurd regular season and a solid ALDS, but he has a solid postseason track record. Soto played an integral part in the Washington Nationals’ 2019 World Series run, including an absurd World Series performance. His signature moment came in game one, on the road in Houston. Despite being in a hostile environment against Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball back then, Soto showed the world he was built for the big moments. Not only did the former National blast a massive fourth-inning solo jack, but just an inning later, he added crucial insurance runs thanks to a double off the left-field wall. Without him, it’s hard to see Washington getting the same result in this contest, considering that, in the end, they only came out ahead 5-4. Not to mention, it took all seven games for this series to be decided. Look to Soto to fill up the box score this series. His contributions are crucial, considering the Yankees don’t know when Judge’s bat will return.
As good as the Yankees are, the Guardians have a significant edge in one area: their bullpen. Cleveland’s relievers are as good as they get, boasting the fourth-lowest ERA as a unit for the last 30 years. Not only this, but Guardians’ relievers registered more than 150 innings than the three teams ahead of them, meaning that not only are they able to come in and chew up significant innings, but they have a solid case at being the best pen in the Wild Card era. The script from manager Stephen Vogt has so far emulated this. In game five of the ALDS, against the Tigers, the Guardians took one of the strangest approaches to secure a date in their first ALCS since 2016.
Starting pitcher Matthew Boyd only lasted two innings despite yielding only one hit and one walk. He also set down five out of six hitters on strikes, meaning he was dealing. However, the thinking of Vogt and the Guardians’ coaching staff was that they did not want Detroit to get a third lick against Boyd, and it’s safe to say it worked out for them. Cleveland relievers combined for seven innings and only yielded three runs in that span; not bad considering that the Tigers were arguably the hottest team in the American League for the tail-end of the regular season. A reliever who has been at the center of the pens’ success is rookie right-hander Cade Smith.
The 25-year-old makes a compelling case to be the American League Rookie of the Year, posting a sub-two ERA in 75.3 innings of work. Smith deserves more attention than he has been getting for the Rookie of the Year award and likely would be if the American League wasn’t so stacked with young talent this year. Smith’s postseason career has gotten off to an excellent start, giving up one run in six and 1/3 innings of work.
Interestingly enough, the Cleveland bullpen logged 58% of the innings against Detroit in the ALDS, meaning they could be fatigued despite using nearly every arm for short-term work.
Considering their heavy reliance on the bullpen, the question becomes whether Cleveland can keep up with the Yankees’ strong bats, considering there is no rest between games three and five. To get ahead, the team must rely on its solid rotation, which features second-year starter Tanner Bibee.
Bibee is a career, low 3s ERA pitcher who won’t blow you away with an overpowering fastball. Instead, the right-hander will rely upon his exceptional command to yield ground balls and soft contact. Not only this, but Bibee utilizes two solid breaking balls, which have contributed to his excellent finish to the 2024 season, posting a sub-three ERA in September.
Of course, it’s hard to tell the story of the Guardians’ season without mentioning Jose Ramirez. The 32-year-old hit a solid .279 from the dish, launching 39 home runs and 118 RBIs. Look for the long-time Guardian to make a splash in this championship series.
Despite being World Series favorites, the path to victory for New York is challenging but certainly within their reach. Not only are their bats solid, but the rotation featuring Cole, Carlos Rodon and Luis Gil is as solid as any team left in the hunt. The Yankees will host the series’ first two games, and how they play early on will tell the story of this team’s season. Games three to five will be in Cleveland, and from the Yankees’ standpoint, this is as brutal as it gets. New York sweeping the Guardians on the road seems unlikely, meaning how the Bronx Bombers get going at home will be all the more critical.
The series kicks off this Monday at 7:38 in the Bronx, N.Y. Alex Cobb will start for the Guardians, and Rodon will take the ball in game one for the Yankees.