The annual release of the Associated Press Top 25 Preseason Poll caused inevitable fallout throughout the college basketball world, with fans of teams such as North Carolina, Texas and Kentucky being outraged by their team’s “low” ranking while Alabama, Arkansas and Rutgers sit pretty inside the top 25.
KenPom’s annual preseason rankings released the same morning, with many hardcore fans resorting to the analytical rankings to cope with their team’s AP placement.
Comparing the two rankings is like comparing apples to oranges, but it’s still fun to stir the pot of college basketball drama to determine where these teams truly stand.
Arkansas — 16 AP, 25 KenPom
Where I land: Leaning KenPom
The Razorbacks were the darling of the offseason after saying goodbye to Eric Musselman (USC) to replace him with former Kentucky head coach John Calipari and a bevy of former high-profile recruits who followed the storied coach from Lexington. KenPom seeded the Hogs at No. 25 due to its dislike of teams built on a bedrock of transfers, with the Associated Press opting to drink the Fayetteville Kool-Aid ahead of 2024.
Although the gap between its rankings (nine spots) is far from the largest on this list, the difference between a top 16 team and a top 25 team is significant come tournament time. Erring on the side of caution, I decided to stick with KenPom on this one. The Hogs are one of the most volatile teams in the country this season and could win from anywhere between 17 and 25 games in Calipari’s first year at the helm.
Rutgers — 25 AP, 63 KenPom
Where I land: Leaning KenPom
The Scarlet Knights made waves in the college basketball world this offseason with the commitment of two top-five prospects and four additional impact freshmen in its fourth-ranked recruiting class. The AP voters thought enough of the Scarlet Knights to slide Ace Bailey and company into the rankings at No. 25, while the analytics seeded Rutgers back at No. 63.
Much like KenPom, I have a hard time trusting teams reliant on incoming freshmen and portal additions without a stable veteran presence (something Rutgers doesn’t have with the transfer of Cliff Omoruyi to Alabama). Still, Rutgers is one of the highest upside teams in the nation and can absolutely find itself playing in the second weekend of March Madness. Improving its league worst three-point shooting percentage and free throw rate will be crucial to the team’s progression in 2024.
Little Rock — 49 AP, 251 KenPom
Where I land: Somewhere in the middle.
The Trojans were the only team from the Ohio Valley Conference to receive votes in the preseason AP poll, placing 49th overall and seventh out of the 10 mid-major schools to receive votes. The over 200-place difference from voter to computer is the largest out of any team in college basketball this preseason, largely in part due to KenPom’s overall dislike of mid-major teams with low graded opponents.
With such a gaping difference between the two rankings, it’s hard to side with one or other. I’m splitting the middle on this one, as the Trojans – despite a relatively easy conference slate – possess one of the most talented mid-major rosters in America with shifty guard Khalen Robinson and LSU-transfer Mwani Wilkerson forming one of the conference’s top scoring duos under Little Rock’s rim-running style.
McNeese — 37 AP, 103 KenPom
Where I land: Leaning AP
The Cowboys enter 2024 as the highest ranked mid-major team in America, collecting 11 AP votes ahead of Will Wade’s second season in Lake Charles. McNeese returns three starters, including potential Southland Player of the Year Christian Shumate and dynamic guard Javohn Garcia, forming a formidable mid-major nucleus.
KenPom is fading McNeese most likely due to its projected strength of schedule (which is fair), but from a pure talent perspective, the Cowboys are a surehanded pick to win their conference and compete in the NCAA Tournament this March. McNeese’s slow-paced tempo is a giant-killer capable of suffocating undisciplined defenses such as Michigan’s last season.
St. Louis — 40 AP, 105 KenPom
Where I land: Leaning KenPom
The rebranded Billikens gathered one of the Atlantic 10’s top overall rosters this off-season behind newly hired coach John Schertz. Schertz took top players Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope with him from Indiana State after taking the Sycamores to the NIT Championship last season. St. Louis garnered nine AP votes yet ranked outside of the top 100 of KenPom’s preseason rankings.
Considering the conference slate, I am leaning KenPom for the Billikens. SLU is a part of the six-team bottleneck atop the Atlantic-10, a group of teams bound to beat each other up come conference play. St. Louis is also in year one of a new regime and will more than likely take time to acclimate to coach Schertz’s scheme.
Villanova — UR AP, 20 KenPom
Where I land: Leaning AP
The Wildcats are the only team on this list to not receive a single AP vote, yet Kyle Neptune’s squad placed 20th in KenPom’s preseason rankings. Puzzling, yes, but who’s more to blame? The Wildcats return just one starter from a lulling 18-win campaign in 2023 in All-Big East big man Eric Dixon. A litany of transfers were brought in to surround Dixon this off season, including Wooga Poplar (Miami), Tyler Perkins (Penn) and Enoch Boakye (Fresno State). So where does Villanova stand heading into 2024?
In a rare case of siding with the AP in overrating a team, I chose to fade KenPom’s No. 20 preseason ranking. The Wildcats still appear to be a year or two away from competing under Neptune, especially with such a refurbished roster in Philadelphia.