The five 2025 MLB pitching breakout candidates

With the Major League Baseball regular season returning in less than a month, spring training is in full swing, with players working to show their potential. After looking at candidates who could break out at the plate, it only makes sense to discuss who fans should keep an eye on this season. With new, young talent emerging and hyped-up prospects returning from injury, here are five pitchers that are poised to have big seasons.

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians 

Cleveland always seems to develop talented pitching, and 25-year-old Gavin Williams feels like the perfect candidate this time around. This will be Williams’ third year in the league, following a solid showing in 2023 with a 3.29 ERA over 82 innings. Williams had a sophomore slump last season with an ERA of nearly five in less innings, missing some time with an elbow injury in the middle of the year. As he hopes to pitch a full season in the MLB, Williams has already displayed plenty of promise. He has a fastball that tops out in the triple digits, which he improved upon velocity-wise last season and added some movement as well. He also introduced a cutter last season, which he refined for much of the latter half of the year and which should result in weaker contact from hitters. On top of his high velocity, Williams ranks among the top in extension, meaning he releases the ball further from the mound from most pitchers. This means that his 100+ mph fastball seems even faster for hitters, making him a nightmare for opposing lineups. His slider and curveball looked great in the minors, but have yet to really translate to the majors, which is a key area of improvement, alongside working on his command. If there’s any team that can help him improve it’s the Guardians, as they did with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. A healthy offseason in the Cleveland pitching lab could be just what Williams needs to take the next step. 

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks 

The Diamondbacks’ rotation looks stacked this season with its addition of Corbin Burnes, and who’s likely to be their fifth starter is former top prospect Brandon Pfaadt. You may remember him as the game one starter in the playoffs for Arizona in 2023, where he was solid during that World Series run. Going into his third year in the majors, Pfaadt has struggled, although the right-handed pitcher saw improvements in his first full season last year. However, his glaring 4.71 ERA last season doesn’t show the full picture, as when you look at his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.61 and expected ERA (xERA) of 3.75 (metrics that exclude the impact of team defense), the numbers show that at least part of his struggles were just bad luck, unfortunate defense or a mix of both. Pfaadt has proven his ability to limit walks, and he strikes out batters at an above average rate, he just needs to find better results on balls in play. A new pitching coach alongside four proven pitchers ahead of him could be just what he needs to grow to his true potential this year. 

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds 

27-year-old south paw Nick Lodolo has had three seasons impacted by injury, and he is still yet to reach a qualifying season. He posted a strong 3.66 ERA over 103 innings in his first season but struggled mightily the next year with his season cut to just 34 innings with a calf injury. He returned in 2024 with another underwhelming season, which was once again cut short, this time with a finger injury. His underlying numbers, however, show that he may see more success in the future. Like Pfaadt, Lodolo’s 3.95 FIP and 3.72 xERA suggest that he may have been a little unlucky. He has above average strikeout rates and forces a good amount of ground balls, but he also gives up a lot of hard contact, although these numbers have slowly improved each season. Just from watching Lodolo pitch you can see he has ridiculous horizontal break on his pitches, making him a potential nightmare for hitters. The Reds have said that he had a productive offseason, getting even stronger and is in better physical shape than any of his past seasons. If this is finally the season he can stay healthy, Lodolo’s metrics are plenty reason to believe he will take huge steps in 2025. 

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays 

The former Rays top prospect, Shane Baz, has been waiting for his moment for years now. Baz had a few appearances in 2021 and 2022 before missing the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery. He returned for 79 innings last year where he looked solid, posting a 3.06 ERA. That season he improved upon his curveball, able to get whiffs in the strike zone at an impressive rate. However, he also saw his previously devastating slider become less effective, unable to get nearly as many swings and misses. It’s possible this was just a grip issue after being out for so long, since his other pitches still had plenty of spin. If that’s the case and his slider returns to form, Baz could easily establish himself as a top pitcher. For the first time in a long time, he has positive momentum coming off the end of last season and a healthy offseason to refine his mechanics. As long as he stays healthy, it looks like a good bet for Baz to finally have the breakout season the Rays have expected for years. 

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates 

Last year was mostly overshadowed by fellow rookie Paul Skenes taking the league by storm, but Pittsburgh also got a solid debut season from Jared Jones. Prior to the All-Star break, he already looked like he was breaking out, sustaining a 3.56 ERA before missing a few months to injury.  He didn’t look the same after returning, causing his ERA to balloon over 4 to end the season. However, if his first half was an indication of what he can do while healthy, Jones could see a Spencer Strider-esque breakout as a high-velocity, high-strikeout starter. Jones also revealed that he’s been working on a two-seam fastball over the offseason, a much-needed addition to his previous two-pitch arsenal. His main struggle last season was consistency- a few ugly starts really hampered his stats. When his pitches weren’t working, he got hit hard. A two-seamer could be an effective pitch to force weaker contact when nothing else is working, which can help prevent those disastrous outings. Assuming his late-season struggles were due to the injury, Jones could be a dangerous pairing with Skenes and Mitch Keller at the top of the Pirates rotation.