I am by no means telling you that these six resources will pick you a perfect bracket; the odds of picking every March Madness game correctly are 1 in 2 to the 67th power, or about 147 quintillion, according to a statistician from San Diego State University.
Even then, that jarring statistic only accounts for teams each having a 50% chance to win (so not necessarily accounting for the major upsets like No. 15 over No. 2, etc.).
I can, however, promise you that if you choose to utilize these six databases, you will be more informed as a March Madness bracketeer.
Each of these six websites brands its own trademark that helps in the picking process, whether it be predictive metrics such as Bayesian Performance Rating or summation metrics such as adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.
In exchange for my unsolicited generosity and charitable efforts, I will be expecting a personalized “thank you” card from all who read this article for revealing the easiest ways to predict games this week.
I’ll be checking my PO box – seriously.
ESPN (Stats page, standings page) (FREE)
ESPN’s central statistical database gives users an easy look into the top performers in college basketball from both a conference and national perspective. ESPN’s stats page lists the top scorers, rebounders and shooters, as well as all team stats for each of the 364 teams in Division I.
Luckily for you, only 68 (and truly only 64) of those teams qualified for the tournament, so that narrows down your search rather drastically.
Here’s what I would recommend if you are using ESPN’s site to pick your bracket: If you look at your bracket and find a matchup you’re conflicted about (for example, UConn versus New Mexico), go to the ESPN website and search for both teams through its easy-to-use filters. Comb through the stats briefly and pick the team who’s profile you like more. You can look at schedules, top performers and record on each team’s individual page.
Kenpom.com (SEMI-FREE)
Oftentimes referred to as the “godfather” of analytics sites, Ken Pomeroy’s expansive database crunches season-long trends into one number to determine the most efficient and powerful teams in the nation.
Kenpom’s free user plan includes access to the homepage. Trust me, that is more than enough considering the quantity of statistics dumped onto one webpage.
Pomeroy’s homepage database includes offensive and defensive efficiencies (how consistent/high scoring each side of the ball is for each team), offensive tempo, strength of schedule, quality of opponents and — perhaps most importantly in March — luck rating.
EvanMiya Basketball Analytics (SEMI-FREE)
Evan Miyakawa’s unique analytical perspective has quickly developed into my go-to for game analysis and abstract analytical outlooks of all 364 teams in college basketball.
But don’t worry, first time bracketeer, there are super simple and easy to use features sewn into Miyakawa’s database. Can you not decide who to pick in a first-round matchup between a No. 9 and No. 8 seed? Try Miyakawa’s bracket simulation tool, which quite literally simulates an entire bracket in less than five seconds using the analytics available on the site.
For my basketball junkie audience, Miyakawa also patents the BPR rating (or how effective each player is while on the court and how their team fares when they are not on the floor) and team ratings that take into account each game of the season.
Haslam Metrics (FREE)
Eric Haslam’s free database includes the following: team rankings dependent on time (recent games hold greater weight), all-play estimates (essentially a match-up predictor for all teams) and previews for every game in college basketball. And it’s all free.