Ya gotta believe! This term has stuck with the New York Mets since the 1973 season and still resonates with the team today. Since holding the best record in baseball in June, New York has struggled with inconsistencies the past couple of months, jeopardizing their postseason chances. Will New York hold on to a playoff spot? If so, how far will they go in the MLB postseason?
MLB regular season is inching closer to the end as the days of September go by. Teams are starting to clinch divisions and postseason spots, but the wildcard races are in full force with openings still up in the air.
With the Philadelphia Phillies clinching first place in the National League East, New York has been forced to look elsewhere to the NL wild card for a playoff spot. New York is surrounded by immense pressure in the wildcard race with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants all fighting for the one spot that New York currently holds possession of. However, FanGraphs still has the Mets’ chances at 86.4% to make the postseason. In the other two wild card spots ahead of the Mets are the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. Both teams have more than a five-game lead which should carry them into the playoffs if all stays the same.
As of Thursday, New York has a 1.5 game lead over Arizona with both Cincinnati and San Francisco just two games behind for the last wildcard spot. A promising detail for New York is the difficult schedules that lie ahead for Arizona, Cincinnati and San Francisco for their last stretch of the season, arguably the most crucial stretch. This could slim down their chances of overtaking New York in the last days of the regular season. As for the Mets, they have a fairly manageable slate for their last three series with the Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins and definitely the most competitive opponent, the Chicago Cubs.
One of New York’s biggest challenges this season has been the inconsistencies of their pitching staff. More specifically, the back end of New York’s bullpen has had some shaky arms that have cost the Mets to blow leads and lose games. However, a positive side for the Mets pitching is their young arms in Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, who will all be facing lineups that have never seen them before in this high-pressure point of the season. These rookie arms are backed by pitchers David Peterson and Clay Holmes who have been solid starters for New York all season long. In injury news, New York hopes to add Kodai Senga back to the rotation soon after an encouraging first start in Triple-A following his rehab. Overall, in what seems like a weak point of this roster, glimmers of hope surround the Mets’ rotation in preparation for a postseason run.
The format of the postseason could benefit New York as it allows for a short pitching staff, which is one of its strengths. Due to the spread-out schedule of the series in the postseason, New York will be able to use their high-leverage pitchers more often and maximize favorable matchups. Where long-arms and deep bullpen runs have been a struggle for New York, the playoffs format mostly eliminates that problem. Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers and Brooks Raley will likely be the pitchers they rely on for a playoff bullpen. But rather than relying on a complete five-pitcher rotation, manager Carlos Mendoza can shorten his pitching staff and lean on their most dominant arms for key playoff situations.
Despite the lack of consistency, Juan Soto has led New York’s lineup and kept them afloat through their losing streaks. However, through September, New York’s offense has slowly started to wake up again. Soto is on pace to hit the third-most home runs in Mets history after just joining the prestigious 40-30 club, a new milestone in his career. Pete Alonso has started to rack up his home run game again after hitting four home runs this week to snap a 10-game homerless drought. On Tuesday, Francisco Lindor also went yard to continue his five-game hitting streak and Brandon Nimmo has been putting up numbers for New York. With the top of the lineup of Soto, Lindor, Alonso and Nimmo producing strong offense, it will make a large difference in the Mets run to make the postseason.
The playoff races are in full throttle and the New York Mets are in the middle of the fire. With less than ten games remaining in the regular season until the stage is officially set for the 2025 MLB Postseason, the question remains if New York will be able to hang on.