Mets fans everywhere have begun to panic, as New York currently sits on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. Dating back to the beginning of September, the Mets have lost five out of their last seven series and, as of Monday, have a record over that span of 7-12. A lackluster trade deadline, in which the Mets acquired multiple big-name players who have been negative contributors, hasn’t helped. However, the biggest factor in their late season collapse has been poor performance from their starting rotation.
An ERA of 5.41 in August and 5.42 in September have demonstrated cracks that were not properly addressed during the offseason and that should have been obvious as early as spring training.
The Mets came into 2025 with a projected rotation of Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, David Peterson and Kodai Senga. Griffin Canning was signed to a one-year deal after getting non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves. He joined Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn as experienced depth at the major league level. From the get-go, this set up should have waved red flags for many.
Holmes, who came over from the New York Yankees on a three-year, $38 million agreement, hadn’t started a major league game since 2018 before joining the Mets rotation. Montas was gifted a two-year, $34 million contract after accumulating less than one win above replacement in 2024 between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers. Montas had pitched just once in 2023 after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. Manaea reunited with the Mets after opting out of his contract following 2024 and rejecting a qualifying offer, reupping on a three-year, $75 million deal.
Gone were Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, who had each made 31 starts for the Mets in 2024. With those two holes plugged, the Mets looked to hit the ground running in spring training after a $1 billion offseason.
The rotation began to fall apart almost as quickly as it was put together. Montas went down in mid-February with a lat strain. A week later, the team announced that Manaea would begin the season on the IL with an oblique strain.
Holmes was named the opening day starter after an encouraging spring. Megill and Canning were immediately thrust into rotation roles. The rotation had an ERA of 2.13 in April and 3.60 in May. Canning was in the midst of a breakout campaign with an April ERA of 2.49. Megill and Senga each had a sub-1.00 ERA in April and Peterson also pitched well. Unfortunately, all five would regress in the coming months.
Canning and Megill both had June ERAs of over 5.00, with Megill hitting that mark in May as well. Megill hit the injured list midway through the month with an elbow injury and Canning followed soon after with a ruptured Achilles.
Holmes had a 3.31 ERA prior to the All-Star break, a number that has increased over a point in the time since. He is less than five innings from topping his 2024 innings total by 100.
Kodai Senga’s 3.02 ERA over 22 starts is good on the surface, but a below average walk rate combined with average strike out rates led to a steady regression that led to a demotion to Triple-A. Even that hasn’t seemed to solve the problem, as he has continued to struggle and has seemingly had issues with confidence.
Peterson was an All-Star after a great first half, but he too has regressed with a 5.47 ERA over his last 15 starts. He has walked half a batter per inning over his last seven.
Montas struggled upon his return, being demoted to the bullpen before being ruled out for the season with a UCL injury. Manaea has also struggled despite elite strike out numbers.
The Mets have been forced to call upon rookies to not only supplement but sustain their staff. Top prospects Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat both debuted, with the former struggling and the latter holding his own. Nolan McLean had been dominant since being called up with a 1.27 ERA. Still, it is faulty reasoning to rely on any rookie in the playoffs, especially one with less than 10 career starts.
In an offseason with options such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi available, Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns opted to dole out of collection of smaller contracts instead of going big-game hunting at the top of the market. On the surface, this approach was defendable, considering the team also committed to giving Juan Soto $51 million a year for at least five seasons. Still, the approach is flawed when you consider that the combined average annual values of the contracts given to Canning, Holmes, Manaea and Montas amounted to about $59 million.
Fried agreed to a $27.25 million AAV deal with the Yankees. Snell is receiving a little over $28 million a season with the Dodgers. While both of those deals were five years or longer, Nathan Eovaldi only signed a three-year deal with a yearly value of $25 million. Pitchers such as Garrett Crochet and Jesus Luzardo were also available on the trade market with the Mets having the prospect capital needed to make a move.
Instead, Stearns put together a patchwork rotation consisting of question marks. The Mets opening day rotation consisted of a career reliever, a pitcher with only one full season coming off a mostly lost year, a guy with a career ERA over 4.00, a non-tender recipient and David Peterson. Peterson should have been a complimentary mid-rotation piece. Instead, he is now behind a rookie who has made seven career starts. For a Mets team that had World Series expectations coming into 2025, their rotation was not set up for success at any point and it has shown in the results.