In the 21st century, the Cardinals have been one of the most consistent contenders in baseball. Two World Series wins and only one season under .500 from 2000-2022 is an impressive mark.
But now, St. Louis just concluded their second season in the past three years under .500 and their 78-84 may make the season look better than it really was.
St. Louis’s pitching staff finished with a total of a 4.30 ERA and a 4.06 FIP, earning them 21 and 16 in the league respectively. While their bullpen was above league average, their starting pitching ranked 25 and 22 in these categories.
Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore, Miles Mikolas and Michael McGreevy all had ERAs in the 4s, which is already a bad sign. According to FanGraphs, Andre Pallante had an ERA of 5.31, bad enough for 45 out of 47 qualified starters.
Pitching is only half the game, and St. Louis wasn’t good in the other half either. Their .693 team OPS ranked sixth worst in the league, and their .378 SLG% was fourth worst. Most of their other hitting stats are in the bottom half of the league, and the ones above it just barely so.
St. Louis finished with a -65 run differential in 2025, 22 in the league. Overall, the Cards were a much worse team than their record shows.
Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson all finished the season above a .770 OPS, but not one of the other nine Cardinals with 100+ plate appearances even cracked .700. And the team’s top four in SLG% and OBP% are the same four, with the only difference for AVG being Thomas Saggese in fourth, while the others in the top five are the same.
To put it bluntly, the main problem comes from the Cardinals’ young MLB talent, as well as a lack of real rotation. A rookie isn’t necessarily expected to be an all-star from the jump, but most of their young players are unplayable, and some of those players just played their third or fourth season. In fact, only Saggese and Yohel Pozo qualified as rookies, meaning that Saggese, a rookie, outperformed multiple Cardinals in their second years and beyond.
The Cards don’t have a terrible farm system, but like most parts of their team right now, it’s not exactly good either.
JJ Wetherholt is the number six prospect in baseball and should reach the majors in 2026. He was the seventh overall pick in 2024, and early on has been one of the better players in the class. Liam Doyle, Leonardo Beral and Raniel Rodriguez are the other three of St. Louis’s top 100 prospects.
While St. Louis has some other decent prospects, they don’t have many high-end ones, nor ones slated to come up next season. As it currently stands, St. Louis’s immediate future relies heavily on the growth of their current young talent, something that has been rather lackluster thus far.
So, the question looming for the Cardinals is about their offseason. With Chaim Bloom set to take over for John Mozeliak as general manager in the offseason, change could be coming for how they operate. But Bloom will still need to follow the Cardinal Way, which usually involves being smart about things, making the right move without overpaying to please fans in the immediate and always being contentious.
If this were any other team, the answer would be obvious with such clear signs. Barring an out-of-character spending spree this offseason, the only real smart choice for the Cardinals is to sell off some of their older talent to obtain fresher pieces.
In a rebuild, the team would of course be looking to get younger. Gray, Contreras and Nolan Arenado are three players all in their mid-thirties with annual salaries in the tens of millions. The Cards would likely look to trade them to a team trying to win now, although Arenado’s decline may instead force the team to instead release him.
Additionally, St. Louis could look to move players whose free agency will open in a few years, while the team would still be working on the rebuild. Donovan and JoJo Romero stand out as likely choices here, and while Donovan is a fan favorite, he and Romero would garner interest and offers with assets more valuable to the Cardinals long-term.
When the Cardinal Way is considered, it’s hard to see the Cards doing most of this. It’s far more likely that they’ll opt to run back this core next year, possibly with additional smaller signings and the reliance on breakouts next year. With those growing pains their youth are going through, it would be wise to at the very least move some of the heavier, older contracts out in exchange for some younger talent, to build a better future.