The March to April: What to look for in mid-majors come March 

Cinderella. Everybody wants to find her — sometimes before she even arrives at the ball.  

Predicting which No. 11 seed will pick off a No. 6 seed in the opening round, run through a No. 3 seed in the Round of 32 and take down a No. 2 in the Sweet 16 appears easy. But it isn’t.  

March is, as we all know, wildly unpredictable. That No. 11 you picked to the Elite 8? Downed in the first round. That No. 10 seed you swore had no chance of winning? It just beat the buzzer and won the region. 

But there are methods to the madness. Micro-analyzing each of the mid-major frontrunners lays out a formula (somewhat) foolproof to the absurdity of the NCAA Tournament.  

And no, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s and the Mountain West aren’t mid-majors. Quit thinking they are.  

Find what they’re good at. 

Let’s take a look at the highest rated mid-major team as well as the undefeated Miami-Ohio RedHawks (23-0) on Ken Pomeroy’s database. 

Saint Louis (22-1, 10-0 Atlantic 10) has been the darling of most Cinderella talks to the point and is a circus shot versus Stanford away from being undefeated. The Billikens come in at No. 24 on KenPom, anchored by a top 30 ranked offense and top 25 defense. 

St. Louis ranks second nationally in effective field goal percentage (61.1) and first in effective field goal percentage allowed (43.1). That’s a tractor trailer-sized disparity; the Billikens are getting the shots they want to get (the 3-pointer, which they shoot at the second highest clip in the country) and, on the other end of the court, are holding opponents to a 28% mark from behind the line. 

Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, has been able to win 23 games in a row to start the season behind the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense. The RedHawks have eclipsed the 90-point mark 10 times and are one of the best late-game teams in America.  

Take these things into account when you’re filling out your bracket. 

Monitor consistency (or lack thereof) 

Now, it’s hard to say Miami-Ohio hasn’t been consistent — they’re winning, after all. But the ways in which the RedHawks are winning aren’t consistent (or sustainable).  

They’ve come back down from double figures against Buffalo, Kent State and UMass, downed UNC Asheville in overtime and, sandwiched between 10-point wins over Bowling Green and Western Michigan, staved off Akron in large part to the Zips’ late game mistakes.  

It’s the most indigestible 23-game win streak in the history of college basketball. What RedHawk defense is going to show up on a given night? 

Saint Louis, on the other hand, has only played a single one-possession game since its loss to Stanford in November. The Billikens have mopped the floor with opposing defenses (much like Miami) but, unlike the RedHawks, have suffocated teams defensively as well.  

Mid-major teams who have a recognizable identity and definitive brand of basketball tend to perform better in March. Look at the lionized 2018 Loyola Chicago team that reached the Final Four: 17^th in 3-point percentage, 12^th in 2-point percentage, seventh in effective field goal percentage and 17^th in adjusted defensive efficiency — all while playing at a bottom 50 tempo nationally (305^th).