As unbelievable as it sounds, the New England Patriots are set to make their 12th Super Bowl appearance on Sunday. Their matchup against the Seattle Seahawks will give New England the opportunity to claim their first ever ring post-Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel each looking to claim the first of their careers.
New England is staring down the barrel at an impressive Seahawks squad. Beginning with their offense, Sam Darnold hasn’t seen ghosts this season. The former Jets quarterback had 25 total touchdowns to 15 turnovers during the regular season: respectable, no doubt, but not elite. He didn’t have to do much in Seattle’s dominant win over the 49ers in the divisional round, but his performance against the Rams should infuse the 12th man with plenty of confidence. Darnold finished with nearly 350 passing yards and three touchdowns with a 69.4% completion rate. His passing yard total was his highest all season.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Jaxon Smith-Njigba stepped up when it mattered most. The likely OPOY caught 10 of his 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. Across three games against the Rams this season, he averaged 118 yards. He’s been Seattle’s best player by far. In the nine games that he did not get in the end zone during the regular season, the Seattle offense averaged 23.1 points per game. Across the other eight matchups, they averaged 34.4 points per game and never scored less than 20 points.
Aside from Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed’s Pro-Bowl season as a return man shouldn’t overshadow his offensive role. His ability as a deep threat should be noted, and with Christian Gonzalez potentially following Smith-Njigba, Carlton Davis’s lack of long speed could be taken advantage of. Cooper Kupp nabbed a touchdown in the NFC Championship, so don’t be surprised if they go back to that well. It was just four seasons ago that Kupp caught the game winning touchdown in a Super Bowl MVP performance. There’s no doubt he has the experience.
While the running game has been contained since Zach Charbonnet’s injury (Kenneth Walker 3.3 YPC), both Walker and George Holani, Ashton Jeanty’s Boise State predecessor, were active in the pass game. The pair combined for seven catches for 76 yards in the last game.
Defensively, the Seahawks are the league’s best unit by points per game. The defensive line leads the charge, with Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy being one of the league’s best interior duos. Pressure off the edge is by committee, led by Demarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu, while Boye Mafe and Derrick Hall are rotational pieces.
At the second level, Ernest Jones IV and Drake Thomas each had 95+ tackles this season. Thomas was injured last week, but it seems he won’t have much trouble playing on Sunday.
The defensive backfield is the team’s crown jewel. Devon Witherspoon is among the league’s best cornerbacks, while Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe man the other two posts. Nick Emmanwori, a competitor for DROY, has played linebacker, slot corner and safety as a versatile chess piece for Mike McDaniel’s defense. The deep part of the field is manned by Coby Bryant and Julian Love. The unit doesn’t have many weaknesses, and as a whole, the defense allowed only 17.2 PPG. Other than the Buccaneers in Week 5 and the Rams in Week 16, no team has scored 30+ against them.
As it stands, New England is a 4.5-point underdog. Despite the teams sharing a 14-3 record, there’s little doubt Seattle has played superior competition. For the Patriots to mount an upset, they’ll need an offensive performance infinitely better than what they’ve shown over the last three playoff games. They’ve scored just 15.7 offensive PPG this postseason; a total Seattle has eclipsed in 17 of their 19 games. Both times they did not were against the 49ers, who they went on to beat by 35 last month in their third matchup of the year.
The key player to look out for is Maye. While a boring selection, the MVP candidate will need to post a legendary Super Bowl performance to make up for the offense’s lack of difference makers. Stefon Diggs has largely been a non-factor in the postseason: while he nabbed a touchdown against Houston, he has 73 yards through three games. The Patriots are 5-0 and average 32.4 PPG this season when Diggs hits the century mark, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that eliminating Maye’s most talented receiver is the gameplan.
While Maye will need to pick up the slack on Sunday, he’ll need help from the supporting cast. Hunter Henry had 17 yards in the last three games after catching the only touchdown scored by either team in the wildcard round. In the backfield, TreVeyon Henderson has played second fiddle to Rhamondre Stevenson, and for good reason. The former OSU Buckeye has taken 24 carries for 57 yards this post season, less than 2.4 YPC. The Patriots average 33.2 PPG when he has a rushing touchdown this season, so seeing the rookie make the most of his touches will be key to a New England victory.
Defensively, Christian Gonzalez and the defensive backfield’s coverage on Smith-Njigba will be the game changer. If the defense can force Darnold to other targets, the Seahawks won’t have the horses light up the scoreboard as they have over the last two weeks. It’s easier said than done but containing Smith-Njigba will be the key in this matchup.
Often ignored, the special teams eliminating Shaheed from the game as a return man will be key to New England’s success. Seattle mounted an impressive 16-point comeback win over the Rams following a Shaheed punt return touchdown, and the opening kickoff against the Niners went for six as well, the same game in which Seattle won by 35. Brenden Schooler, Marte Mapu and ST coordinator Jeremy Springer will have to be at their best to keep him contained.
All signs point to a Seattle win, but I’m a believer in Vrabel and company. It won’t be a high scoring game should New England come out on top, but I think they could do just that. In a multiple-turnover performance from Darnold, the Patriots win a 16-14 slugfest to come out on top, winning the franchise’s seventh Super Bowl.