The 2020s have been incredibly kind to Philadelphia sports fans. The Eagles have made two Super Bowls, winning one; the Flyers just made their return to the playoffs and sit one win away from a round two appearance; and though the 76ers’ success hasn’t amounted to more than a first-round victory, they have been an overall consistent playoff team in the east.
The first real taste of a championship in the decade came from the Phillies of the MLB, who entered the 2022 playoffs as a six-seed following an 11-year playoff drought where they’d manage to cruise to a World Series appearance before falling in a hard fought six games to the Houston Astros. The next three years brought three more playoff appearances, which all fell short of the finals.
Coming into the 2026 season, there were lingering concerns about the core’s sustainability. Both LHP Ranger Suarez and DH Kyle Schwarber required contract extensions, with 1B Bryce Harper, SS Trea Turner and RHP Zack Wheeler on the wrong side of 30 and all three also on long-term and lucrative deals. With so much money already locked up and Schwarber coming off a career-high 56 home runs, the question was shifting away from whether Philly would retain both to a question of if they’d even keep one.
They’d end up picking Schwarber, giving him a five-year $150 million contract to keep him through his age 37 season, in addition to re-signing catcher JT Realmuto. Suarez would sign with the Boston Red Sox in the offseason.
Coming into the season, the roster certainly looked like one that would remain competitive even if questions about the future were still present. The rotation still looked strong, with Wheeler set to return from injury not long into the year and top prospect Andrew Painter now set to arrive in the show.
As of Sunday afternoon, the Phillies sit at a 9-18 record, the worst in the entirety of the MLB. This comes off the heels of a 10-game losing streak they finally ended Saturday.
The offense has been borderline anemic to begin the year, a bottom-five ranking in OPS thus far. Notably, their .576 OPS against left-handed pitching is dead last in the MLB, and their .310 OBP against righties is last in the league as well. Metrics suggest bad luck to an extent but also that they are still bottom ten in advanced stats.
Schwarber’s on-base skills have been nonexistent thus far, sitting at a sub-.200 average and an OBP that fell .030 since last year. While his power remains and his metrics do suggest bad luck, he has still struggled mightily on the on-base side no matter what way it’s spun.
Outfielder Brandon Marsh has been strong, and newly signed Adolis Garcia has been average so far. Harper has also been himself in terms of his performance.
Second baseman Bryson Stott hasn’t had the benefit of luck on his side thus far, as his .548 OPS pales in comparison to a .700 xOPS. Stott is intended as a bottom-of-the-order fielding tool, so if his actual numbers matched his peripherals, he would be doing his job.
Where the real problem lies is the left side of the infield. Turner has an average that sits around a .220 and an OBP just above .300, which is a far cry from what is expected as him for a player who often leads off. The metrics only support that he is truly playing poor. Turner will be 33 this year and has seven more seasons on his deal, so the hope remains that he is having a poor start.
Third baseman Alec Bohm’s .428 OPS ranks last of all qualified hitters across the league. An xOPS of .608 only moves his performance so far from unplayable to awful. With a pending UFA following the season, the writing is likely on the wall for Bohm’s time in Philly once the season ends.
Top prospect Aidan Miller is currently out with a back injury, ruling out a callup anytime soon.
The pitching has been incredibly unlucky, metrics say. Though their 5.08 ERA is the third-worst leaguewide, a 3.76 xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) trails only the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. What this means is that the pitching, specifically the starters, will likely see these numbers return to the mean as the season progresses and luck flattens out.
The question of whether the struggle is sustainable is not a simple answer of yes or no as a whole, but the fact that the pitching has been unlucky provides hope that this poor start will not continue much longer. The concern comes down to if the bats can get back on track, specifically those who are playing bad as opposed to being unlucky. With finite time on the clock for this group, any lost season is a huge miss as the core only grows older.