For the fifth weekend in a row, we have a new number one film.
“Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” led the way, opening to $38.5 million, above my prediction of $35 million. The tabletop role-playing game adaptation has allured critics and audiences alike, earning a 91% score on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A-” CinemaScore after its opening weekend. While this weekend was relatively successful, there are still some reasons to worry for “Honor Among Thieves.” With a reported $150 million price tag, factoring in marketing costs and the theatrical share of revenue, it has around a $493 million break even point. Considering its $71.5 million worldwide opening, “Honor Among Thieves” will need an immense 6.90x multiplier to break even. While strong critic and audience reception will aid in that effort, that is close to an impossible task. “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” next weekend will certainly eat up most of the family audiences, hurting “Dungeons and Dragons”’ potential. While competition eases up in the weeks thereafter, “Honor Among Thieves” will need “Avatar”-level holds to come anywhere close to that multiplier. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not. I think it will have decent holds these next few weekends on the way to $130 million domestically.
“John Wick: Chapter 4,” places second, earning $28.2 million in its second weekend of release. This near-62% drop is steeper than Lionsgate would like, but that can be attributed to the film’s strong opening weekend results. With just south of $123 million earned thus far domestically, “Chapter 4” is only $73 million away from hitting the domestic break even point we mentioned last week. It will likely take another couple of weeks before it hits that total, depending on how well it holds next weekend. Nonetheless, with strong critical and audience reception yet again for the franchise, there will be many more “John Wick” and “John Wick” universe films in the future.
In third place is a surprise entry: the biblical drama “His Only Son.” The film earned $5.5 million in its opening weekend, alongside an “A” CinemaScore. Faith-based dramas typically drop sizeably after the first few weekends, but that isn’t a problem for “His Only Son.” With a reported budget of $250,000, the film is already well in the green and on the way for a significant return on investment.
In fourth and fifth are sequels “Scream VI” and “Creed III” with $5.3 million and $5 million respectively. The horror sequel fell 36% in its fourth weekend, a remarkable number for a horror film. At $98.2 million domestically, the film is likely to cross that nine-digit mark by Wednesday or Thursday. “Creed III” fell only 39% in its 5th weekend, showcasing remarkable staying power. With $148.5 million earned thus far domestically, you would think “Creed IV” is near on the horizon.
This week brings the wide release of two films: “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Air.”
There is a lot of anticipation for the animated adaptation of the famed video game series. While it certainly has the potential to be volatile depending on the critical reception, I expect it “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” to open to $97 million. However, for the first time this year, if it gets above an 80% score on Rotten Tomatoes, I guarantee this film grosses over $1 billion worldwide.
“Air” tells the story of how Michael Jordan was recruited to join Nike and craft his signature shoe the eponymous “Air Jordan.” With a stellar cast and strong critical reception, I expect “Air” to open to $17 million.
Will “Super Mario Bros.” jump to the top of the charts or will “Air” fly to victory?
As always, we shall see.