The presidential election in 2024 has dominated headlines around the country. The struggle for the most powerful position captures a lot of attention. Yet, a president’s success or failure is often determined by whether their party has control of Congress, especially in an age of increasing partisanship. If you vote this election, you’ll not only make your pick for president, but also choose who you want for your state’s congressional delegation—and this can matter greatly for the future of politics.
Congress, made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate, is currently split. Republicans have a slightly greater number in the House, with 220 members to 212 for the Democrats, and the Democrats have the thinnest of majorities in the Senate. In that majority, there are 47 senators who actually belong to the Democratic Party and four independents who caucus with them, making for a total of 51. Meanwhile, the Republicans have 49 senators in their caucus. These razor-thin advantages for each party signal a new era for American politics; gone, at least for now, are the huge majorities parties used to rack up at one time or another. The most recent time the majority was at 55 seats or more in the Senate was from 2009-11. Even farther back, a party last had 60 seats in the Senate from 1977-79. The House is more volatile, due to turnover happening more often, but not since 2011, when Democrats controlled 257 seats, has either party had more than 250.
This emerging trend of narrower margins in every election has made both the House and Senate susceptible to partisan gridlock, where few things are agreed upon and even fewer bills are passed. This is largely due to the fact many districts are becoming more uncompetitive; there are fewer swing states and districts than ever before. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, in the House of Representatives there are only 27 that “are considered toss-ups” for the upcoming election. This may seem to present a paradox for the argument that paying attention to Congress is more important than ever, especially considering UConn students are from Connecticut, where many districts have comfortably gone to Democrats for a long time.
But the vanishing idea of a toss-up district means we should take care to be observant of the danger such polarization creates both for the system of Congress and the U.S in general. Right now, that danger is coming from the Republican Party, and it is most prevalent within the House of Representatives, where Republicans have the majority. In recent years, the far-right wing of the GOP has grown much stronger, in concordance with Trump’s takeover of the party. This strength was evident in the aftermath of the 2020 election, when Trump falsely claimed he had won, without providing any evidence, and tried to overturn the results. Even after the horrific breach of the U.S Capitol by a rioting mob of Trump supporters, 139 out of 221 House Republicans – a clear majority – voted against certifying the election, along with eight of their Senate counterparts. They held the twisted lies of Trump above their duty to the United States and decided to try overturning a fair election.
One of the lawmakers who spearheaded the efforts to justify such a move, Mike Johnson, is now the speaker of the house, the most important position in the chamber and third in line to the presidency. How an election denier got to one of the most powerful positions in the country demonstrates the power of the new radical Republicans. After previous GOP speaker Kevin McCarthy decided to negotiate with Democrats on passing an emergency spending bill, he was ousted by those in the Republican party who wanted to shut the government down instead. Now, Johnson is in an even better position to do Trump’s bidding—a prospect made more sinister by Trump’s talk of a “little secret” between them, which experts have speculated may involve messing with election results if Trump loses.
We should fear a Republican majority led and filled by lawmakers who are Trump supporters first and loyal to the wellbeing of their country second, even more so when the presidential race is in a dead heat. That is why, whatever district and state you’ll be voting in this election, you should value your choice for senator or representative in Congress, even if it might seem uncompetitive. If everyone viewed their voice as worthless, no one would cast their vote. It is up to us to help decide what party is in power for the next years, and whether the party of election denialism and dangerous radicalism will get that power.