I’ve exceeded the word limit for this column, so below is your guide to the CFP prior to the start of conference championship week.
The Field Ahead of Conference Championship Week:
ACC
SMU Mustangs
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: With a win, the Mustangs would clinch a top four seed and first round bye next weekend. With a loss, things become dicey. Clemson would steal the top four seed and would leave SMU to fend for itself with two losses in the thick of the at-large conversation. Does a two loss SMU get in over a two-loss Ohio State or red-hot South Carolina?
Clemson Tigers
Record: 9-3
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The formula is fairly simple for the Tigers: win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. A last second loss to bitter rival South Carolina last Saturday crushed all at-large bid hopes Clemson had left, but a Miami loss gave the Tigers a final shot at the CFP with a title bout against the one-loss Mustangs in Charlotte.
Miami Hurricanes
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: No
Situation: The fate of the Hurricanes is out of their hands, as after a loss to Syracuse to end the regular season, Miami must now sit and wait – anxiously watching the ACC title game – to see if hanging onto a lower seed is possible. The Canes would benefit from an SMU victory (which would eliminate Clemson) as well as a Georgia loss in the SEC title game (putting both 10-win teams in the same boat come selection Sunday).
Big 10
Oregon Ducks
Record: 12-0
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The Ducks clinched their spot in the CFP with a blowout win over Washington last Saturday. A top four seed and first round bye is now the goal for Dan Lanning, with a bout against Penn State on the horizon in Indianapolis.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The Nittany Lions will play in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title for the first time in eight years after crushing Maryland last Saturday and getting some help from Michigan, who knocked off Ohio State. Penn State has already punched their at-large ticket, but a victory against the Ducks could clinch a first round bye and top-four seed.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: No
Situation: Buckeye fans rejoice – Ohio State will more than likely get into the College Football Playoff. The loss to Michigan hurts the ego more than the resume, which still features wins against Indiana and Penn State. An at-large bid is almost certain for Ryan Day’s squad.
Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: No
Situation: In all likelihood, the Hoosiers will find their way into the CFP. Carrying the dead weight of a loss to Ohio State, who finds itself in jeopardy now, may present some trouble for Indiana, but a ten or eleven seed seems likely come next Sunday.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish*
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: N/A
Situation: Life is nice for the Irish, who wrapped up the regular season 11-1 and now have two weeks of rest before a likely home game in South Bend to open the CFP.
Big 12
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The Sun Devils have plowed their way to the Big-XII title game behind the smashmouth style employed by Kenny Dillingham. A victory against Iowa State on Saturday will clinch ASU a spot in the CFP, with a loss all but ending the Devils’ postseason aspirations. Do-or-die in Jerry World.
Iowa State Cyclones
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: After spending time in the top 10 of the AP Poll this season, the Cyclones rebounded from a mid-season slump to find themselves in Jerry World against Arizona State. Win and you’re in, lose and you’re on the couch come January.
SEC
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The Dawgs are in the nether of CFP contention, with no clear path — aside from winning the SEC Championship – to the CFP being present in Athens. Does a three-loss Georgia warrant a top 11 seed?
Texas Longhorns
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: Yes
Situation: The Longhorns punched their ticket to the CFP with a win over Texas A&M, but sights are set on a first round bye with a victory over Georgia in Atlanta.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record: 9-3
Conference Championship: No
Situation: The Gamecocks are the hottest team in college football and just took down in-state rival Clemson in Death Valley. That’s the pitch that will hopefully land USC in the Playoff, as the Gamecocks will not play in Atlanta Saturday afternoon.
Mississippi Rebels
Record: 9-3
Conference Championship: No
Situation: The Rebels must sit and hope the committee values wins over Georgia and South Carolina more than losses to Kentucky, LSU and Florida – it’s looking bleak in Oxford. With no SEC title birth, the Rebels find themselves in the same boat as Alabama and South Carolina.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 9-3
Conference Championship: No
Situation: Do wins over Georgia, South Carolina and LSU outweigh losses to Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Tennessee? It’ll be close for the Tide, whose destiny is out of their hands.
Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: No
Situation: The Volunteers’ two losses may have saved them an extra week of wear-and-tear, with an important rest week coming before Selection Sunday – which will include the Vols – next weekend.
Group of Five
Boise State Broncos
Record: 11-1
Conference Championship: Yes (MWC)
Situation: A win-and-in scenario presents itself for the Broncos, who have steamrolled their way to an 11-win, conference title bid season behind the powerful legs of running back Ashton Jeanty. Boise State is currently seeded as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion and would likely keep that ranking with a win over UNLV Friday.
UNLV Rebels
Record: 10-2
Conference Championship: Yes (MWC)
Situation: With a blowout victory over Nevada, the Rebels punched their ticket to the Mountain West Championship game and kept their hopes of the No. 12 seed alive. With a win and an Army loss, UNLV would most likely slide into the College Football Playoff as the final seed.