I want to begin this column with a disclaimer; this will only cover teams firmly in the Field of 68 or on the bubble, and not the Power Conference teams whose seasons went belly-up in December — looking at you, Miami.
Conference tournaments for each of the Power Conferences begin within the next two weeks, with the Big 10 and SEC championship games tipping off just hours before the Selection Show on Sunday, March 16.
Which team is scorching hot heading into its conference tournament and can stake a claim in the Field with a handful of wins? Which highly-touted team will flame out and crash before the Selection Show?
Big East:
Warmest: Xavier Musketeers
The Musketeers have won five straight and 10 of its last 13, including victories over Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton, as Xavier has firmly planted itself as a top-five team in the Big East heading into the conference tournament.
The Musketeers have relied on their surly defense to spur on this win streak, ranking 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 12, per Bart Torvik. Xavier has also shored up on the defensive glass (21.8%), decreased its foul rate and increased forced turnovers per game.
Xavier has catapulted itself into the at-large conversation with a little under two weeks remaining in the Big East regular season. Can the Musketeers improve on its grisly 1-9 Q1 record before Selection Sunday? To be determined.
Coolest: Creighton Blue Jays
This may come across as a bit harsh — Creighton has lost three of five, with all three losses coming from Q1 opponents — but the Blue Jays have lost some muster heading into Madison Square Garden, ranking 74th in Bart Torvik since Feb. 11 and falling flat offensively in losses to Xavier and St. John’s.
Standout center Ryan Kalkbrenner is dealing with a lingering foot injury and veteran guard Steven Ashworth is just 14 out of 43 from three for the last five games. The Blue Jays have struggled to stay consistent late in games, with zero 80-plus points performances in February.
Creighton will need to right the ship with closing games at Seton Hall and versus Butler to scrape together some momentum to survive in the Big East Tournament.
Big 10
Warmest: Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo’s Spartans limped through the first 11 days of February, dropping games at USC and UCLA before a home loss to Indiana put Michigan State in danger of losing its high-pedigree seed come Selection Sunday.
Then Sparty rattled off wins in over Illinois (13), Purdue (9), Michigan (13) and Maryland (3) en route to taking the Big 10 lead and setting up a potential Big 10 championship showdown with bitter rival Michigan to end the regular season.
Michigan State has been salty on the defensive end since its winning streak began on Feb. 15, ranking third nationally in that span in adjusted defensive efficiency (87) and 17th in three-point defense (25.5%).
Sparty has embraced its identity as a mediocre shooting team that can beat almost anybody down with its size and physicality, as Izzo commands one of the nation’s hardiest teams into March.
Coolest: Illinois Fighting Illini
There needs to be an asterisk next to the Illini considering the decimation of its lineup caused by injuries and the labyrinth of one of the country’s toughest schedules over the course of the last two months.
Illinois is 5-7 since Jan. 19, with losses coming against Nebraska, Rutgers, Wisconsin and Duke. This has left Brad Underwood’s team with a concerning record heading into March.
Luckily for the Illini, most of its key players are returning to full health, including Ben Humrichous and Will Riley, as Illinois looks to push to the six line come Selection Sunday.
Big 12:
Warmest: Houston Cougars
Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have lost once since November and have been playing historically good defense behind one of the nation’s deepest and most experienced starting lineups. Their one loss was a one-point overtime defeat to now-top 10 Texas Tech.
The Coogs — traditionally known for high-level defensive pedigree — have unlocked an unseen element of their offense, the three-pointer, while being piloted by All-Transfer candidate Milos Uzan. Houston ranks third nationally in three-point percentage (39.8) and has scored above 75 points eight times during its 20-1 stretch.
Coolest: Kansas Jayhawks
The nation’s number one team at the start of the year has now lost six times since Jan. 25, including drops against Utah, Kansas State and Baylor, as Bill Self’s Jayhawks find themselves unranked for just the second time in his 21-year tenure.
The Kansas offense has looked tangled and its defense confused during its 5-5 stretch since Jan. 25, The Jayhawks must do some soul searching after finding themselves on the seven line in Bracket Matrix’s latest consensus rankings.
ACC:
Warmest: Clemson Tigers
Clemson has won 11 of 12 games — seven-straight on the road — as the Tigers creep up on Duke for the ACC lead with two games remaining in the regular season. Since Jan. 11, Clemson ranks ninth in the country on Bart Torvik, sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 123.8 (13th) and 3PT% of 39.4 (22nd).
The level of competition is not as sterling as the SEC, but stringing together a 14-2 record since Christmas is no easy task. What the Tigers have been able to do, including a win over Duke, cannot be underappreciated considering the current temperature of upsets seen on a nightly basis.
Coolest: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons’ refusal to shoot three-pointers has hurt its NCAA Tournament stock, as Wake Forest has lost three of five games and has crashed on the wrong side of the bubble, with just two games remaining in its regular season.
With one of those two games including a trip to Cameron Indoor to take on Duke, it’s safe to assume Wake Forest will end its regular season with at least 10 losses. With an early ACC Tournament exit, are the Demon Deacons still in?
I think not.
SEC:
Warmest: Auburn Tigers
Yes, this is the boring, safe answer. Yes, it is the only correct answer. As the SEC devours itself from the inside out, Auburn has stood the test of the nation’s top-ranked strength of schedule and has notched wins over Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky during its tremendous 27-2 start.
While its two regular season games remaining are at Texas A&M and versus Alabama, the Tigers have complied the nation’s top resume and look to secure the top overall seed on Selection Sunday with a handful of wins in the SEC Tournament.
Coolest: Kentucky Wildcats
Jaxson Robinson is out for the year. Lamont Butler has delt with lingering injuries. The Wildcats are 8-8 in conference play and have dropped seven of 12 games heading into the SEC Tournament. What can Mark Pope do to steer the Wildcats out of this month-long tailspin?
I don’t actually know. There isn’t much the first-year coach can do when his roster has been plagued by injuries at its most vital positions.