Patrick’s Politics: Peace is a fool’s hope in the Middle East 

On Nov. 27, President Joe Biden announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah militants based in Lebanon. The ceasefire was supposed to herald the start of renewed efforts towards peace in the region. But the next day, rebels in Syria fighting against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime reignited a long-dormant civil war, now thirteen years old, advancing on and eventually capturing Aleppo—Syria’s second-largest city. And, in recent days, both Hezbollah and Israel have accused each other of violating the ceasefire, all while Israel’s destructive campaign against Hamas in Gaza continues. Far from being resolved, conflict in the Middle East is only spreading and threatening further destabilization.  

The situation in Syria has brought new attention to one of the worst conflicts in recent memory, which has a long-running history dating back to 2011. At the time, a series of revolutionary movements known as the Arab Spring was sweeping countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, toppling leaders and creating hopes for democratic futures. Syria, ruled by the authoritarian al-Assad, quickly descended into civil war between Assad’s government and several different rebel groups. Far from leading Syria to prosperity, however, the war caused unimaginable suffering as Assad used chemical weapons against his own people and the rebels fought amongst each other. The United Nations Human Rights Office estimates a total of 306,887 civilians were killed in a ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, before the war finally wound down with a ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia.  

The capture of Aleppo and other advances across Syria mark a stunning success for the rebels but also raise several issues. The rebels currently leading the resurgence are members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist militia which was formed with direct ties to the terrorist group Al-Qaeda. Although HTS disavowed its connection to Al-Qaeda in 2016, it is still designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and United Nations. The primary mission of HTS is to install a fundamentalist version of Islamic government in Syria should it gain power. In a country where fresh memories exist of atrocities committed by fundamentalist Islamic State terrorists, HTS in government would represent a future little better than Assad’s rule.  

A more concrete, less hypothetical consequence is the refugee and humanitarian crisis that would surely result from renewed large-scale civil war in Syria. During the previous stage of conflict, more than 11 million Syrians were forced to leave their homes and about 6.8 million remain internally displaced within the country. 15.3 million require at least some form of humanitarian assistance, a crisis made worse by a 2023 earthquake which devastated much of northwest Syria. The reemergence of deadly bombings and fighting will exacerbate the crisis, and although the rebels have made swift advances, Assad has the airpower of Iran and Russia at his disposal, a factor that may very well stall the offensive and prolong civilian suffering.  

All of this is occurring in the shadow of separate humanitarian disasters in Lebanon and Gaza. During Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah this year, 1.4 million people in Lebanon fled their homes, nearly 500,000 of whom escaped to Syria. In a twisted irony, 385,000 of that number were Syrian refugees who originally fled to Lebanon to escape the battles between Assad and the opposition. While the ceasefire in Lebanon has provided a slight respite, Israel and Hezbollah have yet to fully commit to its terms, meaning the war could soon be back on again.  

The situation is even worse in Gaza. With food deliveries long being restricted by Israel amid fears of Hamas diverting the resources, famine has begun to set in across much of the territory, and the level of aid is only going downwards. The UN recently announced the suspension of food deliveries through the main entry point of Kerem Shalom due to gangs looting the convoys. The acute shortage of food has led to desperation among Gazans; a woman and two children were crushed to death in central Gaza on Nov. 29 as a crowd attempted to get bread from a bakery. Adding severe famine to a conflict that has resulted in at least 44,000 deaths—70 percent of whom were women and children—and nearly the entire population of Gaza being displaced will compound the humanitarian catastrophe.  

The epidemic of human suffering in the Middle East is not a new phenomenon. What is novel at this juncture, however, is the amount happening in close proximity and at the same time. With the agencies of the UN paralyzed in their attempts to deliver aid and only fragile semblances of peace emerging, the fate of millions in the region is hanging by a thread. The renewed Syrian civil war amid the campaigns of Israel heralds the fraying of that increasingly thin thread.