The Bucket List: Powerhouses, ceilings and floors – mailbag special

When I posted on my Instagram story asking for my viewers’ college basketball questions, I truthfully didn’t know what to expect in response. Would I be responding to actual college basketball inquires, or to a collection of questions pertaining to nothing sports related from my unserious, and sometimes humorous, followers? 

My responses (perhaps surprisingly) did cultivate a real sense of college basketball inquisitiveness, and I thank each of those who submitted a question. 

I took the juiciest, most plump questions from my forum and answered them down below – tying analytics to each in some way, shape or form.  

Who’s a team you are FOR SURE taking to the Sweet 16 this year? 

There are two possible routes I can take to answer this question. The obvious answer? Auburn. Duke. Houston. I won’t say Alabama… just yet. But see, these are all safe and relatively likely picks. Let’s get unsafe – and unlikely.  

Let me bring your attention to one team currently seeded on the No. 4 line that I believe is a surefire Sweet 16 team this March. 

As of today (Feb. 20), the Michigan Wolverines are slotted as a No. 4 seed on Bracket Matrix, with the metrics to climb as high as a No. 2 seed if Dusty May’s group were to hoist the Big Ten Tournament trophy three weeks from now.  

The Wolverines’ end of game closing ability should serve them well come March, especially against higher-seeded foes. Michigan has won each of its last six games by less than five points, including two-and three-point victories over Purdue and Ohio State, respectively.  

The size of May’s starting lineup (which includes two seven-footers and two six-foot-five wings) poses an extreme threat to any team attempting to run-and-gun against the Wolverines with a small ball unit.  

With such an overbearing size on the court at all times, one may assert it would be a challenge to push the tempo and play fast. Wrong. May’s offense operates at the 53^rd fastest tempo in college basketball, per KenPom, and it’s worked up to this point. Michigan is 20^th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (119.9), 10^th in effective field goal percentage (56.9) and fifth in two-point percentage (59.1).  

So, in summary: the Wolverines are one of the tallest teams in the country that can shoot inordinately efficiently from inside the arc while running an up-tempo offense and have a knack for winning in close games against high-tier opponents. 

If this doesn’t have Sweet 16 scribbled all over it in red sharpie, I don’t know what does.  

Thoughts on a High Point upset in March? Love their speed on offense, if they can get a good match-up I can see them going to the Sweet 16.  

I would like to preface this by saying that the person who submitted this question was all over Alabama as a Final Four team last February when nobody held the Tide in high regard. 

I believe that the most burdensome challenge for the Panthers will be making it out of the Big South conference alive – not winning a game in March.  

The Panthers have won just three conference tournament games the past five seasons, including a No. 1 seed 2023-24 campaign that ended in a second-round tumble at the hands of eventual champion Longwood.  

For the sake of this article, assume that High Point won the Big South and snagged an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 13 seed (where they’re currently slated per Bracket Matrix). 

Alan Huss mellowed down his offense in 2024-25, dipping from college basketball’s 109^th fastest tempo in 2023-24 to 218^th this season. What has that unlocked for the Panthers? Almost everything. 

High Point pilots college basketball’s 28^th best offense per KenPom (up from 36^th last season) and is shooting more efficiently both from the floor and from deep (15^th in EFG%). In fact, High Point’s 36.8% 3PT mark is up drastically from last season (222^nd to 44^th), which plays in the Panthers’ favor when bidding for an upset come March.  

Yet the most radical change has been seen on the defensive end of the floor. High Point’s three-point defense has amended from 228^th last season to 129^th this year, with sound improvement coming from inside the arc as well (128^th to 102^nd).  

Combining a more fine-tuned offense with a vastly improved defense will lead to more opportunities in March. As of today, the Panthers are slated to match-up with St. John’s in the first round and the winner of Missouri-George Mason in the Round of 32.  

The blueprint becomes very apparent for the Panthers in this scenario: shoot the three and limit turnovers offensively. Both St. John’s and George Mason rank in the bottom half of offensive efficiencies nationally and prefer to run slow sets to grind down the shot clock, allowing for its defenses to win games by forcing turnovers.  

There is a certain type of team that High Point is capable of beating come March, with St. John’s being the mold.  

How important will seeding end up being for the Big East Tournament? 

Considering the Big East’s 11-team tournament format, the penultimate goal should be to finish in the top five in regular season conference play and secure a first-round bye at Madison Square Garden.  

Looking at the current Big East standings, the top four teams appear to be in a tier of their own, while numbers five through eight continue to battle to claim the last free spot in the quarterfinals.  

St. John’s (14-2), Marquette (11-4), Creighton (11-4) and Connecticut (10-5) have all – relatively – punched their tickets to the quarterfinals, while Xavier (9-7), Villanova (8-8), Georgetown (7-8) and Providence (6-10) all continue to vie for the fifth overall seed.  

Butler (5-10), Seton Hall (2-13) and DePaul (2-14) round out the conference at the bottom.  

If you’re into superstitions and analytics (a bit of an odd mix), you’d want your favorite squad to earn a top three seed. In nine of the last 10 Big East Tournaments, a top three seed has made the final, winning the tournament seven of those nine times.  

Some interesting matchups to watch if the current seeding held for the rest of the season: No. 6 Villanova and No. 3 Creighton would meet in the quarterfinal round, which would pit one of the nation’s most talented scorers in Eric Dixon against one of the best defenders in the country in Ryan Kalkbrenner. No. 4 Connecticut would also meet No. 5 Xavier, who stole one from the Huskies earlier this season.  

This format would also allow St. John’s to avoid both Marquette and Creighton until the final round, both of whom gave the Johnnies trouble in spurts this season.