The end of the MLB regular season is just over two weeks away, and while many division races are wrapped up, the National League West is still up for grabs for two teams down the stretch. But in a time where many step up for big moments, both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres seem to be hobbling their way to the finish line. These final weeks will decide if the Dodgers continue their dominant reign over the division, or if the Padres can win their first NL West title since 2006.
The reigning World Series champions Dodgers were expected to cruise to another division title, but their 2025 season hasn’t panned out in the way they had hoped. Injuries have decimated their pitching staff, as Gavin Stone, Evan Philips, Tony Gonsolin and Roki Sasaki have missed significant time. This has led to a team ERA of over four and has cost Los Angeles games in key moments. Just last week, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was just one out away from a no-hitter in Baltimore, but after a solo homer, Los Angeles’ bullpen surrendered three more runs to lose the game in the ninth. On the offensive side, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez have both had down years, though the team still holds the best on-base plus slugging in the National League due to the efforts of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. However, with Will Smith and Max Muncy back from the IL, Los Angeles can still put its past woes behind it and its star-studded lineup will always make the team a dangerous competitor in the NL West and the league as a whole.
San Diego has been trying to get over the hump for years, coming off a strong 93-win season in 2024. Unlike past teams though, San Diego’s offense has dropped from top 10 in home runs to the second-worst, only ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Injuries to Michael King, Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill and, more recently, Xander Bogaerts and Jason Adam have tested the roster’s depth. Still, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. can carry the lineup and Gavin Sheets has emerged as a serious power threat. Nick Pivetta has been one of the best pitchers in the National League, leading the rotation with a sub-three ERA. The San Diego bullpen has been spectacular, led by all-stars Robert Suárez, Adrian Morejon and midseason acquisition Mason Miller. They’ve helped keep San Diego in close games, which has put it in striking distance to steal the division and make a run in October.
Los Angeles dominated the head-to-head matchups this year, winning the season series against San Diego nine games to four. With no more direct matchups on the schedule, Los Angeles holds a crucial tiebreaker over San Diego in the event of a tie. Now it all comes down to their remaining strength of schedule and how each time navigates the final few weeks. San Diego arguably has an easier path to the finish line, with opponents like the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox coming up. Meanwhile, the Dodgers must play the Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners and seven games against their rival, the San Francisco Giants. San Diego must take advantage of their weaker opponents to close the gap, while Los Angeles will be tested before they gear up for another playoff run. With the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies in control of the top two seeds in the National League, it’s becoming likely that these two teams are fighting for home-field advantage in the wild card round rather than a playoff bye. Still, playing at home is a big deal for both of these teams, who thrive in front of their home crowd.
Momentum in September can make or break a season, but so far neither team has been able to pull away. Los Angeles is 5-5 in their last 10 games after bouncing back from series losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh by taking care of Colorado. Their inconsistency, especially against inferior opponents, has raised questions about the team going forward. Recent heroics from Betts and Ohtani have kept the team afloat, though, and Tyler Glasnow’s presence in the rotation is just what they need to finish strong. Meanwhile, San Diego has stumbled to in the beginning of September. The team went 3-6 largely due to shaky starting pitching, with Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish posting nearly five ERAs in the past month. San Diego will hope to jumpstart their momentum after a four-game set against Colorado this weekend.
As the end of the regular season nears, the NL West race is far from over. Los Angeles’ tiebreaker and high-end talent give them an upper hand, but a manageable schedule for San Diego gives them an opportunity to take this race to the very end. Both teams will need to put their recent struggles behind them if they want to come on top. Southern California is set for a tight finish as both these teams look for a spark going into October.